Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Up40¢Down60¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$150.15

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 60¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up40%

Down60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,376

Combined PnL-$136.97

Up2 traders

Total Value$66.76

Total Shares164

Combined PnL-$13.18

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 58.2¢	$722.33	$623.63	-$98.71	50% 2044-2046 (4090)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$472.92	-$27.08	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$250	+$0
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$222.92	-$27.08
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$472.92	-$27.08	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$250	+$0
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$222.92	-$27.08
AL almach	Downavg 48.7¢	$248.73	$255.35	+$6.62	49% 924-967 (1891)
BO bosona	Downavg 58¢	$227.74	$196.33	-$31.41	50% 4166-4088 (8254)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 59¢	$59.59	$50.5	-$9.09	52% 252-235 (487)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 55.3¢	$54.71	$42.07	-$12.63	52% 13-12 (25)
GH ghorrock<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$76.11	$41.68	+$0.84	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 57.8¢	$38.79	$33.58	-$5.21	49% 924-973 (1897)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 38.8¢	$25.23	$24.68	-$0.55	46% 1805-2097 (3902)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$722.33

Value

$623.63

PnL

-$98.71

Record

50%

2044-2046 (4090)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$472.92

PnL

-$27.08

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$0

Up$25050¢-$27.08

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$472.92

PnL

-$27.08

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

Both legs:

Invested

$248.73

Value

$255.35

PnL

+$6.62

Record

49%

924-967 (1891)

bosona

Down

Invested

$227.74

Value

$196.33

PnL

-$31.41

Record

50%

4166-4088 (8254)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$59.59

Value

$50.5

PnL

-$9.09

Record

52%

252-235 (487)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$54.71

Value

$42.07

PnL

-$12.63

Record

52%

13-12 (25)

ghorrock<$100

Down

Invested

$76.11

Value

$41.68

PnL

+$0.84

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$38.79

Value

$33.58

PnL

-$5.21

Record

49%

924-973 (1897)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$25.23

Value

$24.68

PnL

-$0.55

Record

46%

1805-2097 (3902)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 60%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.