Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (65%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 35¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Up65¢Down35¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$84.52

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 35¢

-28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up65%

Down35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$270.47

Total Shares757

Combined PnL-$97.63

Up2 traders

Total Value$93.85

Total Shares142

Combined PnL+$13.12

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Down 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$503.33	+$3.33	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$325	+$75
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$178.33	-$71.67
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$503.33	+$3.33	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$325	+$75
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$178.33	-$71.67
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 63.7¢	$219.37	$196.63	-$22.74	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.7¢	$120.86	$120.41	-$0.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$98.51	$76.22	-$22.28
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 50¢	$200	$142.66	-$57.34	48% 875-948 (1823)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$92.5	$65.98	-$26.52	48% 875-935 (1810)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Upavg 53.2¢	$52.71	$65.34	+$12.63	— 7-6 (13)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Downavg 43.4¢	$58.5	$48.56	-$9.93	54% 1036-900 (1936)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 64.9¢	$28.03	$28.51	+$0.48	47% 1712-1954 (3666)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$17.11	$13.26	-$3.84	50% 4114-4061 (8175)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$503.33

PnL

+$3.33

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$503.33

PnL

+$3.33

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$75

Down$25050¢-$71.67

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$219.37

Value

$196.63

PnL

-$22.74

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

Both legs:

Up$120.8663.7¢-$0.45

Down$98.5147.2¢-$22.28

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$200

Value

$142.66

PnL

-$57.34

Record

48%

875-948 (1823)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$92.5

Value

$65.98

PnL

-$26.52

Record

48%

875-935 (1810)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Invested

$52.71

Value

$65.34

PnL

+$12.63

Record

—

7-6 (13)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.5

Value

$48.56

PnL

-$9.93

Record

54%

1036-900 (1936)

suntori<$100

Invested

$28.03

Value

$28.51

PnL

+$0.48

Record

47%

1712-1954 (3666)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.11

Value

$13.26

PnL

-$3.84

Record

50%

4114-4061 (8175)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Down 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.6%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.