Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up56¢Down44¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$8.04

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 44.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up56%

Down45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$252.19

Total Shares535

Combined PnL+$3.17

Up2 traders

Total Value$66.49

Total Shares118

Combined PnL+$4.87

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Down 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$809.69	$713.18	-$93.83	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$645.91	$552.18	-$94.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$160.53	$161	+$0.48
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$565	+$65	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$330	+$80
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$235	-$15
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$565	+$65	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$330	+$80
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$235	-$15
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Downavg 46.1¢	$83.47	$85.06	+$1.59	54% 994-856 (1850)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$86.12	$84.32	-$1.79	48% 838-895 (1733)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 45.4¢	$68.99	$72.19	+$3.2	51% 237-225 (462)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Upavg 52.8¢	$52.28	$55.93	+$3.65	— 2-1 (3)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 46.2¢	$10.44	$10.61	+$0.17	50% 4072-4027 (8099)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 50¢	$9.34	$10.55	+$1.21	47% 1625-1826 (3451)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$809.69

Value

$713.18

PnL

-$93.83

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

Both legs:

Down$645.9150.9¢-$94.3

Up$160.5356.3¢+$0.48

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$565

PnL

+$65

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$565

PnL

+$65

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

Both legs:

Invested

$83.47

Value

$85.06

PnL

+$1.59

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$86.12

Value

$84.32

PnL

-$1.79

Record

48%

838-895 (1733)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$68.99

Value

$72.19

PnL

+$3.2

Record

51%

237-225 (462)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Invested

$52.28

Value

$55.93

PnL

+$3.65

Record

—

2-1 (3)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.44

Value

$10.61

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

4072-4027 (8099)

suntori<$100

Invested

$9.34

Value

$10.55

PnL

+$1.21

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Down 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.