Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (83%) · Down at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up43¢Down57¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$2.05

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 57¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up43%

Down57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$670.1

Total Shares1,056

Combined PnL+$8.73

Up1 trader

Total Value$35.36

Total Shares82

Combined PnL-$6.68

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$295	+$45
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$205	-$45
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$295	+$45
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$205	-$45
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 56.6¢	$330.04	$341.06	+$11.02	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
AN Anon455	Downavg 60.9¢	$183	$177.2	-$5.8	49% 286-302 (588)
AL almach	Downavg 59.6¢	$106.91	$105.83	-$1.08	48% 784-859 (1643)
GH ghorrock<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$41.02	$38.59	+$3.08	53% 925-815 (1740)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$42.04	$35.36	-$6.68	47% 1547-1731 (3278)
justdance<$100	Downavg 47¢	$5.92	$7.43	+$1.51	63% 24-14 (38)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$45

Up$25050¢-$45

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$45

Up$25050¢-$45

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$330.04

Value

$341.06

PnL

+$11.02

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$183

Value

$177.2

PnL

-$5.8

Record

49%

286-302 (588)

almach

Down

Invested

$106.91

Value

$105.83

PnL

-$1.08

Record

48%

784-859 (1643)

ghorrock<$100

Down

Invested

$41.02

Value

$38.59

PnL

+$3.08

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$42.04

Value

$35.36

PnL

-$6.68

Record

47%

1547-1731 (3278)

justdance<$100

Down

Invested

$5.92

Value

$7.43

PnL

+$1.51

Record

63%

24-14 (38)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.