Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Up40¢Down60¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$125.72

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 60¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up40%

Down60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,619

Combined PnL+$81.39

Up3 traders

Total Value$229.69

Total Shares604

Combined PnL+$44.33

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDown 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Downavg 66.3¢	$642.8	$639.99	-$2.8	48% 279-297 (576)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$570	+$70	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$370	+$120
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$200	-$50
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$570	+$70	56% 2341-1812 (4153)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$370	+$120
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$200	-$50
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 62.3¢	$444.54	$522.96	+$78.42	51% 1641-1598 (3239)
justdanceCTR	Upavg 27¢	$103.13	$152.53	+$49.4	65% 24-13 (37)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Upavg 32.9¢	$83.3	$49.66	+$6.11	53% 905-797 (1702)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$38.67	$27.49	-$11.18	47% 1493-1672 (3165)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 47¢	$9.18	$14.95	+$5.77	46% 731-854 (1585)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$642.8

Value

$639.99

PnL

-$2.8

Record

48%

279-297 (576)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$570

PnL

+$70

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$570

PnL

+$70

Record

56%

2341-1812 (4153)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$120

Up$25050¢-$50

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$444.54

Value

$522.96

PnL

+$78.42

Record

51%

1641-1598 (3239)

justdanceCTR

Invested

$103.13

Value

$152.53

PnL

+$49.4

Record

65%

24-13 (37)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$83.3

Value

$49.66

PnL

+$6.11

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$38.67

Value

$27.49

PnL

-$11.18

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$9.18

Value

$14.95

PnL

+$5.77

Record

46%

731-854 (1585)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDown 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Down 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.