Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up39¢Down61¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$38.53

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 61¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up39%

Down61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$747.35

Total Shares1,177

Combined PnL+$39.81

Up1 trader

Total Value$33.37

Total Shares86

Combined PnL-$1.28

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 60¢	$624.73	$666.6	+$41.86	51% 1602-1552 (3154)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$496.76	-$3.24	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$295	+$45
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$201.76	-$48.24
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$496.76	-$3.24	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$295	+$45
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$201.76	-$48.24
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$156.56	$177.92	+$21.36	51% 199-192 (391)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$89.96	$102.07	+$12.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 36¢	$66.6	$75.85	+$9.25
GH ghorrock<$100	Downavg 61.6¢	$72.3	$69.28	-$3.02	53% 806-703 (1509)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 40.5¢	$34.65	$33.37	-$1.28	47% 1401-1566 (2967)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 52¢	$7.52	$8.53	+$1.01	50% 3925-3931 (7856)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 60¢	$3	$2.95	-$0.05	47% 236-262 (498)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$624.73

Value

$666.6

PnL

+$41.86

Record

51%

1602-1552 (3154)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$496.76

PnL

-$3.24

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$45

Up$25050¢-$48.24

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$496.76

PnL

-$3.24

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$45

Up$25050¢-$48.24

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$156.56

Value

$177.92

PnL

+$21.36

Record

51%

199-192 (391)

Both legs:

Invested

$72.3

Value

$69.28

PnL

-$3.02

Record

53%

806-703 (1509)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$34.65

Value

$33.37

PnL

-$1.28

Record

47%

1401-1566 (2967)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$7.52

Value

$8.53

PnL

+$1.01

Record

50%

3925-3931 (7856)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

236-262 (498)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.6%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.