Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (75%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (83%) · Up at 25¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Up
6
Up 83%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$257.86
22.7¢ → 25¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUp at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Down 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$24.69 | 50% 1317-1303 (2620) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$30.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.5¢ | $299.22 | $293.32 | -$5.9 | |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 14¢ | $56 | $200 | +$144 | 47% 654-750 (1404) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 19¢ | $67.64 | $178 | +$110.36 | 50% 3878-3890 (7768) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 60.1¢ | $52.14 | $52.91 | +$0.77 | 52% 187-176 (363) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.1¢ | $42.37 | $47.46 | +$5.08 | 46% 656-776 (1432) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $80.78 | $46.6 | +$25.62 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
E9 0xe907...cff6CTR<$100 | Upavg 37.6¢ | $71.95 | $43.98 | -$27.97 | — |
Invested
$1,342.01
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$24.69
Record
50%
1317-1303 (2620)
Both legs:
Invested
$56
Value
$200
PnL
+$144
Record
47%
654-750 (1404)
Invested
$67.64
Value
$178
PnL
+$110.36
Record
50%
3878-3890 (7768)
Invested
$52.14
Value
$52.91
PnL
+$0.77
Record
52%
187-176 (363)
Invested
$42.37
Value
$47.46
PnL
+$5.08
Record
46%
656-776 (1432)
Invested
$80.78
Value
$46.6
PnL
+$25.62
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
Invested
$71.95
Value
$43.98
PnL
-$27.97
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.