Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Down
6
Down 100%
$1.8K
$58.82
73.7¢ → 91.5¢
+24% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 71.3¢ | $834.06 | $770.03 | -$64.03 | 50% 1263-1254 (2517) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $281.92 | $290.27 | +$8.35 | 45% 182-222 (404) |
BO bosona | Downavg 86¢ | $263.42 | $263.42 | -$0 | 50% 3845-3861 (7706) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 50.9¢ | $139.05 | $234.78 | +$95.73 | 52% 178-166 (344) |
 justdance | Downavg 73.7¢ | $169.6 | $197.91 | +$28.31 | 58% 18-13 (31) |
GH ghorrock | Downavg 84.6¢ | $115.94 | $89.02 | -$9.53 | 55% 650-530 (1180) |
Invested
$834.06
Value
$770.03
PnL
-$64.03
Record
50%
1263-1254 (2517)
Invested
$281.92
Value
$290.27
PnL
+$8.35
Record
45%
182-222 (404)
Invested
$263.42
Value
$263.42
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
3845-3861 (7706)
Invested
$139.05
Value
$234.78
PnL
+$95.73
Record
52%
178-166 (344)
justdanceInvested
$169.6
Value
$197.91
PnL
+$28.31
Record
58%
18-13 (31)
Invested
$115.94
Value
$89.02
PnL
-$9.53
Record
55%
650-530 (1180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.