Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (40%) · Up at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Up>99¢Down1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 40%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$55.36

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 99.1¢

+42% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,747

Combined PnL+$131.7

Down3 traders

Total Value$112.97

Total Shares537

Combined PnL-$76.35

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 70.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$69.37	50% 1234-1231 (2465)
justdance	Upavg 68¢	$385.81	$448.14	+$62.34	57% 17-13 (30)
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Downavg 32.9¢	$130.17	$83.04	-$47.13	52% 171-156 (327)
GH ghorrockCTR	Downavg 29.3¢	$179.03	$16.26	-$29.94	55% 641-522 (1163)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 19.9¢	$12.94	$13.67	+$0.73	50% 3824-3843 (7667)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,121.57

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$69.37

Record

50%

1234-1231 (2465)

justdance

Invested

$385.81

Value

$448.14

PnL

+$62.34

Record

57%

17-13 (30)

HsilverbasherCTR

Down

Invested

$130.17

Value

$83.04

PnL

-$47.13

Record

52%

171-156 (327)

ghorrockCTR

Down

Invested

$179.03

Value

$16.26

PnL

-$29.94

Record

55%

641-522 (1163)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.94

Value

$13.67

PnL

+$0.73

Record

50%

3824-3843 (7667)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.