Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (57%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (25%) · Down at 43¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Down
4
Down 25%
2 arb excluded
$3.0K
$344.46
Research grade
NeutralDown at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Up 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 55.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.1K | -$192.41 | 50% 1112-1093 (2205) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$45.14 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54¢ | $1.1K | $908.42 | -$147.27 | |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $127.61 | $269.04 | +$141.43 | 46% 551-653 (1204) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.4¢ | $63.04 | $196.4 | +$133.36 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24¢ | $64.57 | $72.64 | +$8.07 | |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 40.8¢ | $338.15 | $266.46 | +$211.03 | 50% 3775-3793 (7568) |
GH ghorrock | Upavg 42.1¢ | $149.69 | $178.36 | +$58.38 | 54% 565-475 (1040) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Upavg 47¢ | $94 | $140 | +$46 | 51% 152-146 (298) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $26.76 | $55.81 | +$29.05 | 45% 555-673 (1228) |
Invested
$2,267
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$192.41
Record
50%
1112-1093 (2205)
Both legs:
Invested
$127.61
Value
$269.04
PnL
+$141.43
Record
46%
551-653 (1204)
Both legs:
Invested
$338.15
Value
$266.46
PnL
+$211.03
Record
50%
3775-3793 (7568)
Invested
$149.69
Value
$178.36
PnL
+$58.38
Record
54%
565-475 (1040)
Invested
$94
Value
$140
PnL
+$46
Record
51%
152-146 (298)
Invested
$26.76
Value
$55.81
PnL
+$29.05
Record
45%
555-673 (1228)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.