Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 60%
$2.4K
$197.14
77¢ → 97¢
+26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 76.2¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$232.51 | 51% 1009-957 (1966) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Upavg 75¢ | $235.84 | $205.5 | -$30.34 | 51% 146-138 (284) |
GH ghorrock | Upavg 87.2¢ | $342.81 | $185.93 | +$0 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $19.16 | $15.74 | -$3.42 | 45% 507-626 (1133) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $9.03 | $7.42 | -$1.61 | 45% 515-642 (1157) |
Invested
$1,796.23
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$232.51
Record
51%
1009-957 (1966)
Invested
$235.84
Value
$205.5
PnL
-$30.34
Record
51%
146-138 (284)
Invested
$342.81
Value
$185.93
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$19.16
Value
$15.74
PnL
-$3.42
Record
45%
507-626 (1133)
Invested
$9.03
Value
$7.42
PnL
-$1.61
Record
45%
515-642 (1157)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.