Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Up (25%) · Up at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Up
4
Up 25%
2 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$129.06
Research grade
NeutralUp at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-60 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 73.1¢ | $2.2K | $1.7K | -$460.26 | 51% 863-824 (1687) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$247.73 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.9¢ | $773.83 | $561.3 | -$212.53 | |
HS Hsilverbasher | Upavg 80.7¢ | $237.95 | $201.42 | -$36.53 | 51% 119-113 (232) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 47.5¢ | $152.47 | $173.6 | +$21.13 | 44% 435-558 (993) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.2¢ | $58.63 | $128.84 | +$70.21 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.5¢ | $93.83 | $44.75 | -$49.08 | |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 21.1¢ | $92.4 | $74.44 | -$17.96 | 50% 3667-3701 (7368) |
GH ghorrockCTR | Downavg 34.7¢ | $112.95 | $21.15 | -$68.03 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $11.98 | $5.44 | -$6.54 | 44% 171-215 (386) |
Invested
$2,172.08
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$460.26
Record
51%
863-824 (1687)
Both legs:
Invested
$237.95
Value
$201.42
PnL
-$36.53
Record
51%
119-113 (232)
Invested
$152.47
Value
$173.6
PnL
+$21.13
Record
44%
435-558 (993)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.4
Value
$74.44
PnL
-$17.96
Record
50%
3667-3701 (7368)
Invested
$112.95
Value
$21.15
PnL
-$68.03
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$11.98
Value
$5.44
PnL
-$6.54
Record
44%
171-215 (386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.