Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 92¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 10

Up92¢Down8¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 100%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$285.73

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 92¢

+23% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up92%

Down8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,958

Combined PnL+$285.73

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+56 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Up 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 76.1¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$243.98	55% 367-303 (670)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
AL almach	Upavg 86.8¢	$434.81	$450.89	+$16.08	38% 159-261 (420)
MO mo-money	Upavg 87¢	$425.72	$437.8	+$12.09	38% 160-265 (425)
AN Anon455	Upavg 82.6¢	$359.56	$391.91	+$23.64	47% 82-92 (174)
BO bosona	Upavg 84.6¢	$290.41	$298.6	+$8.18	36% 153-269 (422)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 79¢	$207.27	$209.48	+$2.21	51% 46-44 (90)
GH ghorrock	Upavg 82.2¢	$192.21	$122.75	-$20.45	53% 87-77 (164)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$2,275.14

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$243.98

Record

55%

367-303 (670)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

almach

Invested

$434.81

Value

$450.89

PnL

+$16.08

Record

38%

159-261 (420)

mo-money

Invested

$425.72

Value

$437.8

PnL

+$12.09

Record

38%

160-265 (425)

Anon455

Invested

$359.56

Value

$391.91

PnL

+$23.64

Record

47%

82-92 (174)

bosona

Invested

$290.41

Value

$298.6

PnL

+$8.18

Record

36%

153-269 (422)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$207.27

Value

$209.48

PnL

+$2.21

Record

51%

46-44 (90)

ghorrock

Invested

$192.21

Value

$122.75

PnL

-$20.45

Record

53%

87-77 (164)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+56 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Up 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.5%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.