Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 60%
$2.6K
-$68.5
80.3¢ → 99.4¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 82.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$84.87 | 67% 99920-48302 (148222) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 75.6¢ | $859 | $1.1K | +$197.31 | 55% 3006-2437 (5443) |
AL almach | Downavg 95¢ | $129.23 | $135.28 | +$6.05 | 55% 48787-40327 (89114) |
 justdanceCTR | Upavg 22.9¢ | $283.62 | $6.81 | -$276.81 | 52% 2726-2550 (5276) |
LO Loser12CTR<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $81.46 | $1.55 | -$79.91 | 48% 10-11 (21) |
Invested
$1,271.62
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$84.87
Record
67%
99920-48302 (148222)
Invested
$859
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$197.31
Record
55%
3006-2437 (5443)
Invested
$129.23
Value
$135.28
PnL
+$6.05
Record
55%
48787-40327 (89114)
justdanceCTRInvested
$283.62
Value
$6.81
PnL
-$276.81
Record
52%
2726-2550 (5276)
Invested
$81.46
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$79.91
Record
48%
10-11 (21)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.