Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 86¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 100%
2 arb excluded
$6.9K
-$15.93
57.2¢ → 86¢
+50% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 59.1¢ | $3.6K | $3.8K | +$169.57 | 67% 99862-48253 (148115) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Downavg 64.8¢ | $2.3K | $1.6K | -$666.64 | 55% 2972-2408 (5380) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$92.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.8¢ | $1.2K | $447.04 | -$759.43 | |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 61.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$14.47 | 12% 18328-133011 (151339) |
BO bosona | Downavg 31.5¢ | $159.11 | $126.41 | -$32.71 | 55% 49959-40175 (90134) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $233.03 | $101.81 | +$38.25 | 55% 48696-40263 (88959) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33¢ | $31.86 | $72.41 | +$40.55 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27¢ | $31.7 | $29.41 | -$2.3 | |
DU Dubaiitaly | Downavg 56.9¢ | $150 | $71.15 | -$78.85 | 49% 181-190 (371) |
 justdance<$100 | Downavg 61.2¢ | $97.88 | $38.41 | -$59.47 | 52% 2713-2543 (5256) |
Invested
$3,601.99
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$169.57
Record
67%
99862-48253 (148115)
Invested
$2,265.95
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$666.64
Record
55%
2972-2408 (5380)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,224.68
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$14.47
Record
12%
18328-133011 (151339)
Invested
$159.11
Value
$126.41
PnL
-$32.71
Record
55%
49959-40175 (90134)
Invested
$233.03
Value
$101.81
PnL
+$38.25
Record
55%
48696-40263 (88959)
Both legs:
Invested
$150
Value
$71.15
PnL
-$78.85
Record
49%
181-190 (371)
justdance<$100Invested
$97.88
Value
$38.41
PnL
-$59.47
Record
52%
2713-2543 (5256)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.