Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
$-4.9K
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 70.8¢ | $5.1K | — | $-5.1K | 67% 99557-47950 (147507) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Downavg 63.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$252.76 | 12% 18307-132995 (151302) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.7¢ | $761.73 | $1.8K | +$1.0K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.3¢ | $769.46 | — | -$769.46 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $777.1 | $786.64 | +$9.54 | 93% 23498-1772 (25270) |
LO Loser12CTR | Downavg 42¢ | $126 | — | +$30 | — 3-1 (4) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Downavg 25.9¢ | $97.86 | — | -$97.86 | 56% 2854-2282 (5136) |
 justdance<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $4.2 | $5 | +$0.8 | 52% 2707-2540 (5247) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $0.34 | $0.99 | +$0.65 | 55% 48449-40007 (88456) |
TH thismonth | Upavg 22.3¢ | $265 | $0 | +$60.29 | 34% 594-1147 (1741) |
BO bosona | Upavg 28¢ | $240 | — | +$160 | 55% 49717-39929 (89646) |
Invested
$5,104.58
Value
—
PnL
$-5.1K
Record
67%
99557-47950 (147507)
Invested
$1,531.19
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$252.76
Record
12%
18307-132995 (151302)
Both legs:
Invested
$777.1
Value
$786.64
PnL
+$9.54
Record
93%
23498-1772 (25270)
Invested
$126
Value
—
PnL
+$30
Record
—
3-1 (4)
Invested
$97.86
Value
—
PnL
-$97.86
Record
56%
2854-2282 (5136)
justdance<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.8
Record
52%
2707-2540 (5247)
Invested
$0.34
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.65
Record
55%
48449-40007 (88456)
Invested
$265
Value
$0
PnL
+$60.29
Record
34%
594-1147 (1741)
Invested
$240
Value
—
PnL
+$160
Record
55%
49717-39929 (89646)
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