Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (61%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (29%) · Up at 39¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Up
7
Up 29%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$36.62
76.7¢ → 39.4¢
-49% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Down 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 75.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$171.52 | 68% 99314-47652 (146966) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Upavg 76.6¢ | $575.85 | $416.69 | -$159.16 | 12% 18295-132992 (151287) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.6¢ | $488.11 | $251.17 | -$236.93 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.1¢ | $87.74 | $165.52 | +$77.77 | |
AN Anon455CTR | Upavg 80.8¢ | $291.9 | $312.31 | +$20.41 | 56% 2838-2261 (5099) |
TH thismonth | Downavg 14.9¢ | $115 | $143.46 | +$267.31 | 34% 589-1143 (1732) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $36.2 | $24.1 | -$12.1 | 55% 48369-39930 (88299) |
BO bosona | Downavg 39¢ | $148.2 | $22.8 | -$125.4 | 55% 49623-39846 (89469) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 56¢ | $28.64 | $14.32 | -$14.32 | 55% 50404-41004 (91408) |
 justdance<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $2.41 | $1.42 | -$1 | 52% 2705-2538 (5243) |
Invested
$1,533.82
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$171.52
Record
68%
99314-47652 (146966)
Invested
$575.85
Value
$416.69
PnL
-$159.16
Record
12%
18295-132992 (151287)
Both legs:
Invested
$291.9
Value
$312.31
PnL
+$20.41
Record
56%
2838-2261 (5099)
Invested
$115
Value
$143.46
PnL
+$267.31
Record
34%
589-1143 (1732)
Invested
$36.2
Value
$24.1
PnL
-$12.1
Record
55%
48369-39930 (88299)
Invested
$148.2
Value
$22.8
PnL
-$125.4
Record
55%
49623-39846 (89469)
Invested
$28.64
Value
$14.32
PnL
-$14.32
Record
55%
50404-41004 (91408)
justdance<$100Invested
$2.41
Value
$1.42
PnL
-$1
Record
52%
2705-2538 (5243)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.