Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (86%) · Down at 84¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Down
7
Down 86%
$5.2K
$535.44
67.9¢ → 83.5¢
+23% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 67.8¢ | $2.5K | $2.9K | +$390.21 | 68% 99153-47509 (146662) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 68.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$179.5 | 12% 18272-132972 (151244) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 68¢ | $254.19 | $248.59 | -$5.61 | 55% 50399-41001 (91400) |
BO bosona | Downavg 71¢ | $261.97 | $245.36 | -$16.6 | 55% 49592-39819 (89411) |
AL almach | Downavg 62¢ | $210.42 | $225.7 | +$15.27 | 55% 48365-39926 (88291) |
AO aosdijfCTR | Upavg 16.9¢ | $211.47 | $187.47 | -$24 | 9% 45-447 (492) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $25.48 | $21.15 | -$3.33 | 56% 2802-2223 (5025) |
Invested
$2,522.61
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$390.21
Record
68%
99153-47509 (146662)
Invested
$1,182.37
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$179.5
Record
12%
18272-132972 (151244)
Invested
$254.19
Value
$248.59
PnL
-$5.61
Record
55%
50399-41001 (91400)
Invested
$261.97
Value
$245.36
PnL
-$16.6
Record
55%
49592-39819 (89411)
Invested
$210.42
Value
$225.7
PnL
+$15.27
Record
55%
48365-39926 (88291)
Invested
$211.47
Value
$187.47
PnL
-$24
Record
9%
45-447 (492)
Invested
$25.48
Value
$21.15
PnL
-$3.33
Record
56%
2802-2223 (5025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.