Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (80%) · Up at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 80%
$2.4K
$544.01
68¢ → 96.8¢
+42% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HS Hsilverbasher | Upavg 67.8¢ | $876.32 | $1.1K | +$272.59 | 12% 18180-132911 (151091) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 69¢ | $831.73 | $1.1K | +$240.38 | 68% 99041-47372 (146413) |
AN Anon455 | Upavg 63¢ | $117.79 | $164.54 | +$32.72 | 56% 2781-2196 (4977) |
 justdance<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $7.4 | $8.8 | +$1.4 | 52% 2694-2536 (5230) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $4.06 | $0.97 | -$3.09 | 55% 49473-39684 (89157) |
Invested
$876.32
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$272.59
Record
12%
18180-132911 (151091)
Invested
$831.73
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$240.38
Record
68%
99041-47372 (146413)
Invested
$117.79
Value
$164.54
PnL
+$32.72
Record
56%
2781-2196 (4977)
justdance<$100Invested
$7.4
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$1.4
Record
52%
2694-2536 (5230)
Invested
$4.06
Value
$0.97
PnL
-$3.09
Record
55%
49473-39684 (89157)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.