Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Down
6
Down 100%
$1.4K
$280.04
72.7¢ → 91¢
+25% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $862.4 | $1.1K | +$213.04 | 68% 98848-47174 (146022) |
 justdance | Downavg 58.8¢ | $89.11 | $128.72 | +$39.61 | 51% 2687-2534 (5221) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $65.06 | $80.31 | +$15.25 | 55% 49290-39544 (88834) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $56.08 | $66.78 | +$10.69 | 55% 48032-39638 (87670) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $22.78 | $23.75 | +$0.97 | 56% 2631-2086 (4717) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $4.23 | +$0.48 | 55% 50080-40707 (90787) |
Invested
$862.4
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$213.04
Record
68%
98848-47174 (146022)
justdanceInvested
$89.11
Value
$128.72
PnL
+$39.61
Record
51%
2687-2534 (5221)
Invested
$65.06
Value
$80.31
PnL
+$15.25
Record
55%
49290-39544 (88834)
Invested
$56.08
Value
$66.78
PnL
+$10.69
Record
55%
48032-39638 (87670)
Invested
$22.78
Value
$23.75
PnL
+$0.97
Record
56%
2631-2086 (4717)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$4.23
PnL
+$0.48
Record
55%
50080-40707 (90787)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.