Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (83%) · Up at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 83%
$3.2K
$233.83
78.8¢ → 96.8¢
+23% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 76.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$154.62 | 68% 98734-47033 (145767) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 83.2¢ | $528.79 | $575.18 | +$46.39 | 55% 50003-40631 (90634) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 78.7¢ | $472 | $543 | +$71 | 66% 98503-50939 (149442) |
AL almach | Upavg 76.5¢ | $247.59 | $292.78 | +$45.2 | 55% 47933-39536 (87469) |
BO bosona | Upavg 83.8¢ | $229.61 | $247.89 | +$18.28 | 55% 49205-39457 (88662) |
 justdanceCTR | Downavg 24¢ | $168.25 | $66.6 | -$101.65 | 51% 2686-2533 (5219) |
Invested
$1,316.05
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$154.62
Record
68%
98734-47033 (145767)
Invested
$528.79
Value
$575.18
PnL
+$46.39
Record
55%
50003-40631 (90634)
Invested
$472
Value
$543
PnL
+$71
Record
66%
98503-50939 (149442)
Invested
$247.59
Value
$292.78
PnL
+$45.2
Record
55%
47933-39536 (87469)
Invested
$229.61
Value
$247.89
PnL
+$18.28
Record
55%
49205-39457 (88662)
justdanceCTRInvested
$168.25
Value
$66.6
PnL
-$101.65
Record
51%
2686-2533 (5219)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.