Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27

Up18¢Down82¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$52.09

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 82.5¢

+48% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up18%

Down83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,342

Combined PnL+$61.34

Up1 trader

Total Value$19.75

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$9.25

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 54.6¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$69.71	68% 98276-46564 (144840)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 57¢	$338.61	$316.61	-$41.22	66% 98273-50731 (149004)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57¢	$219.3	$180.74	-$57.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.5¢	$119.3	$135.87	+$16.56
MO mo-money	Downavg 63¢	$252	$242	-$10	55% 49798-40414 (90212)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 63¢	$52.93	$80.32	-$23.04	56% 48955-39203 (88158)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63¢	$50.6	$44.98	-$4.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$36.95	$35.34	-$19.02
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 78.9¢	$27.6	$29.22	+$1.62	56% 2545-2002 (4547)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 58¢	$29	$19.75	-$9.25	12% 17845-132659 (150504)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,672.55

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$69.71

Record

68%

98276-46564 (144840)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$338.61

Value

$316.61

PnL

-$41.22

Record

66%

98273-50731 (149004)

Both legs:

Up$219.357¢-$57.79

Down$119.346.5¢+$16.56

mo-money

Down

Invested

$252

Value

$242

PnL

-$10

Record

55%

49798-40414 (90212)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$52.93

Value

$80.32

PnL

-$23.04

Record

56%

48955-39203 (88158)

Both legs:

Invested

$27.6

Value

$29.22

PnL

+$1.62

Record

56%

2545-2002 (4547)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$29

Value

$19.75

PnL

-$9.25

Record

12%

17845-132659 (150504)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.5%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.