Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Up 82%
1 arb excluded
$6.9K
$360
Smart Money Signal
23 of 28 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$35.62 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 79.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$261.23 | 49% 3718-3826 (7544) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 94.8¢ | $940.69 | $863.73 | -$76.96 | 47% 1217-1346 (2563) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 93.5¢ | $805.16 | $810.09 | +$14.08 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
AL almach | Upavg 88.4¢ | $541.99 | $518.45 | +$59.48 | 52% 1719-1616 (3335) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.6¢ | $503.42 | $485 | -$2.23 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.6¢ | $250.5 | — | -$251.28 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $242.5 | $485 | +$249.05 | |
ST stepahead | Upavg 90.9¢ | $311.93 | $296.01 | -$15.92 | 55% 4661-3757 (8418) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 94¢ | $872.3 | $306 | +$51.62 | 52% 1731-1604 (3335) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 72.9¢ | $268.7 | $207.05 | +$7.93 | 57% 5234-3877 (9111) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 86.5¢ | $151.5 | $166.99 | +$15.49 | 53% 3129-2827 (5956) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 93.2¢ | $122.18 | $125.72 | +$3.54 | 54% 1099-952 (2051) |
AL Alpharo28 | Upavg 78.1¢ | $111.19 | $122.33 | +$31 | 58% 513-370 (883) |
BO bosona | Upavg 85.2¢ | $324.03 | $106.11 | +$42.13 | 51% 4983-4719 (9702) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 12.4¢ | $67.41 | — | -$67.41 | 63% 1994-1162 (3156) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 78.4¢ | $39.2 | $50 | +$10.8 | 62% 4780-2916 (7696) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $45.1 | $81.99 | +$36.9 | 51% 1171-1112 (2283) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $28.4 | $40 | +$11.6 | 48% 2593-2832 (5425) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 91.5¢ | $35.23 | $33.37 | -$1.86 | 49% 966-1024 (1990) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 9¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 52% 5242-4903 (10145) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 73.9¢ | $7.8 | $10.55 | +$2.75 | 66% 4097-2069 (6166) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $13.8 | $15 | +$1.2 | 70% 1893-822 (2715) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $13.29 | $14.29 | +$1 | 47% 2520-2793 (5313) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 97¢ | $593.51 | $12 | -$29.51 | 43% 2210-2957 (5167) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $9.75 | $10.05 | +$0.3 | 65% 2910-1583 (4493) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 87.5¢ | $8.75 | $10 | +$1.25 | 48% 1548-1672 (3220) |
Invested
$1,360.38
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$35.62
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
Invested
$1,173.13
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$261.23
Record
49%
3718-3826 (7544)
Invested
$940.69
Value
$863.73
PnL
-$76.96
Record
47%
1217-1346 (2563)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$805.16
Value
$810.09
PnL
+$14.08
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
Invested
$541.99
Value
$518.45
PnL
+$59.48
Record
52%
1719-1616 (3335)
Invested
$503.42
Value
$485
PnL
-$2.23
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Both legs:
Invested
$311.93
Value
$296.01
PnL
-$15.92
Record
55%
4661-3757 (8418)
Invested
$872.3
Value
$306
PnL
+$51.62
Record
52%
1731-1604 (3335)
Invested
$268.7
Value
$207.05
PnL
+$7.93
Record
57%
5234-3877 (9111)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$151.5
Value
$166.99
PnL
+$15.49
Record
53%
3129-2827 (5956)
Invested
$122.18
Value
$125.72
PnL
+$3.54
Record
54%
1099-952 (2051)
Invested
$111.19
Value
$122.33
PnL
+$31
Record
58%
513-370 (883)
Invested
$324.03
Value
$106.11
PnL
+$42.13
Record
51%
4983-4719 (9702)
Invested
$67.41
Value
—
PnL
-$67.41
Record
63%
1994-1162 (3156)
Invested
$39.2
Value
$50
PnL
+$10.8
Record
62%
4780-2916 (7696)
Invested
$45.1
Value
$81.99
PnL
+$36.9
Record
51%
1171-1112 (2283)
Invested
$28.4
Value
$40
PnL
+$11.6
Record
48%
2593-2832 (5425)
Invested
$35.23
Value
$33.37
PnL
-$1.86
Record
49%
966-1024 (1990)
Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
52%
5242-4903 (10145)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$10.55
PnL
+$2.75
Record
66%
4097-2069 (6166)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$13.8
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.2
Record
70%
1893-822 (2715)
ohioism<$100Invested
$13.29
Value
$14.29
PnL
+$1
Record
47%
2520-2793 (5313)
Invested
$593.51
Value
$12
PnL
-$29.51
Record
43%
2210-2957 (5167)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$10.05
PnL
+$0.3
Record
65%
2910-1583 (4493)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.25
Record
48%
1548-1672 (3220)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.4K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $863.73
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $810.09
almach
Up — $518.45
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Up — $296.01
mo-money
Up — $306
Hcrystallash
Up — $207.05
MayorMamdani
Up — $166.99