Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

23 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Up (72%) · Up at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$174.97

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 99.5¢

+54% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

23 of 32 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up23 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares6,873

Combined PnL+$172.92

Down9 traders

Total Value$873.07

Total Shares2,250

Combined PnL-$347.89

Up — 72%Down — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 57.7¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$44.69	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 36¢	$870.52	$1.2K	+$372.57	47% 1208-1339 (2547)
BO bosona	Upavg 89.3¢	$1.5K	$624	-$455.27	51% 4973-4711 (9684)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$516.34	$497.26	+$8.96	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$248.19	$344.76	+$100.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$243.53	$152.5	-$91.1
AL almach	Upavg 92¢	$462.48	$481.35	+$18.87	52% 1710-1607 (3317)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Downavg 40.2¢	$715.72	$472.5	-$75.6	57% 5226-3866 (9092)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.3¢	$465.5	$466.49	+$0.98	98% 4630-97 (4727)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 80.9¢	$297.27	$310.38	+$13.12	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
ST stepahead	Upavg 55.8¢	$303.76	$308.43	+$4.67	55% 4649-3753 (8402)
MO mo-money	Upavg 88.5¢	$230.22	$243.05	+$12.84	52% 1724-1594 (3318)
LI Little-big	Upavg 53.8¢	$107.65	$191	+$83.35	51% 1162-1108 (2270)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 45.5¢	$79.6	$174.06	+$94.46	48% 2606-2865 (5471)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 60.5¢	$201.8	$139.81	-$1.32	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 79.6¢	$85.59	$99.43	+$13.84	53% 3113-2811 (5924)
ohioismCTR	Downavg 60.8¢	$101.05	$92.48	-$8.57	47% 2506-2778 (5284)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 58¢	$87	$89.25	+$2.25	70% 1877-817 (2694)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 62.6¢	$76.88	$82.91	+$6.51	66% 4070-2058 (6128)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$77.6	$81.1	+$3.5	48% 2582-2816 (5398)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 57.3¢	$60.8	$75.78	+$14.98	63% 1989-1161 (3150)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 76¢	$70.67	$75.62	+$16.06	62% 4748-2897 (7645)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 59.2¢	$57.83	$66.69	+$20.02	52% 5230-4894 (10124)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 36.9¢	$51.42	$66.34	+$14.92	49% 960-1012 (1972)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.7¢	$23.2	$36.9	+$13.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.9¢	$28.22	$29.44	+$1.22
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$66.84	$62.67	-$4.17	44% 2472-3195 (5667)
AL Alpharo28CTR	Downavg 57.9¢	$107.76	$54.72	-$41.65	58% 502-365 (867)
wowitsamazing<$100	Upavg 59.6¢	$43.5	$42.72	-$0.78	49% 222-230 (452)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$2,271.54

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$44.69

Record

49%

3684-3801 (7485)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$870.52

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$372.57

Record

47%

1208-1339 (2547)

bosona

Invested

$1,548.82

Value

$624

PnL

-$455.27

Record

51%

4973-4711 (9684)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$516.34

Value

$497.26

PnL

+$8.96

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Both legs:

Down$248.1950¢+$100.06

Up$243.5348.7¢-$91.1

almach

Invested

$462.48

Value

$481.35

PnL

+$18.87

Record

52%

1710-1607 (3317)

HcrystallashCTR

Down

Invested

$715.72

Value

$472.5

PnL

-$75.6

Record

57%

5226-3866 (9092)

hoodquant

Invested

$465.5

Value

$466.49

PnL

+$0.98

Record

98%

4630-97 (4727)

asdcaxz

Invested

$297.27

Value

$310.38

PnL

+$13.12

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

stepahead

Invested

$303.76

Value

$308.43

PnL

+$4.67

Record

55%

4649-3753 (8402)

mo-money

Invested

$230.22

Value

$243.05

PnL

+$12.84

Record

52%

1724-1594 (3318)

Little-big

Invested

$107.65

Value

$191

PnL

+$83.35

Record

51%

1162-1108 (2270)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$79.6

Value

$174.06

PnL

+$94.46

Record

48%

2606-2865 (5471)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$201.8

Value

$139.81

PnL

-$1.32

Record

51%

2609-2462 (5071)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$85.59

Value

$99.43

PnL

+$13.84

Record

53%

3113-2811 (5924)

ohioismCTR

Down

Invested

$101.05

Value

$92.48

PnL

-$8.57

Record

47%

2506-2778 (5284)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$87

Value

$89.25

PnL

+$2.25

Record

70%

1877-817 (2694)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$76.88

Value

$82.91

PnL

+$6.51

Record

66%

4070-2058 (6128)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$77.6

Value

$81.1

PnL

+$3.5

Record

48%

2582-2816 (5398)

RLWGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.8

Value

$75.78

PnL

+$14.98

Record

63%

1989-1161 (3150)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$70.67

Value

$75.62

PnL

+$16.06

Record

62%

4748-2897 (7645)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$57.83

Value

$66.69

PnL

+$20.02

Record

52%

5230-4894 (10124)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$51.42

Value

$66.34

PnL

+$14.92

Record

49%

960-1012 (1972)

Both legs:

Down$23.238.7¢+$13.7

Up$28.2236.9¢+$1.22

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$66.84

Value

$62.67

PnL

-$4.17

Record

44%

2472-3195 (5667)

Alpharo28CTR

Down

Invested

$107.76

Value

$54.72

PnL

-$41.65

Record

58%

502-365 (867)

wowitsamazing<$100

Invested

$43.5

Value

$42.72

PnL

-$0.78

Record

49%

222-230 (452)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

23 of 32 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.