Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Down 60%
2 arb excluded
$4.9K
-$333.96
Smart Money Signal
18 of 30 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 71.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$113.69 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$13.29 | 98% 4630-97 (4727) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 71.3¢ | $635.59 | $606.3 | -$29.29 | 57% 5226-3866 (9092) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $512.86 | $490 | -$5.8 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $244.02 | $490 | +$247.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $253.91 | — | -$252.9 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 76.2¢ | $251.22 | $241.98 | -$9.24 | 50% 4682-4738 (9420) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 57.5¢ | $254.76 | $201.99 | -$8.21 | 51% 2609-2462 (5071) |
 ohioism | Downavg 56.1¢ | $125.86 | $221.75 | +$95.9 | 47% 2506-2778 (5284) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 34.4¢ | $191.92 | — | -$191.92 | 55% 4649-3753 (8402) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 39.9¢ | $208.44 | $80.5 | -$127.94 | 47% 1208-1339 (2547) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.9¢ | $176.1 | — | -$176.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.2¢ | $32.34 | $80.5 | +$48.16 | |
RL RLWG | Downavg 65.4¢ | $71.4 | $100 | +$28.6 | 63% 1989-1161 (3150) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 84¢ | $87 | $103.57 | +$16.57 | 46% 336-397 (733) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $39.4 | $64.99 | +$25.6 | 48% 2582-2816 (5398) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $56.72 | $55 | -$1.72 | 54% 1091-944 (2035) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 70.8¢ | $51.5 | $50.41 | +$6.75 | 66% 4070-2058 (6128) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 25.5¢ | $49.1 | — | -$49.1 | 48% 2606-2865 (5471) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Upavg 39.3¢ | $38 | — | -$38 | 49% 960-1012 (1972) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.2¢ | $33.22 | — | -$33.22 | 52% 1710-1607 (3317) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 23.1¢ | $30.94 | — | -$30.94 | 52% 1724-1594 (3318) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $15.9 | $30 | +$14.1 | 52% 5230-4894 (10124) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $27.5 | $50 | +$22.5 | 51% 2246-2136 (4382) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 88.8¢ | $25.36 | $25.09 | -$0.27 | 50% 2915-2911 (5826) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $54.87 | $15.38 | +$4.84 | 62% 4748-2897 (7645) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $13.2 | — | -$13.2 | 50% 1006-996 (2002) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $6.96 | $12 | +$5.04 | 43% 2188-2930 (5118) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $10.44 | — | -$10.44 | 60% 4328-2942 (7270) |
Invested
$1,336.23
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$113.69
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Invested
$1,056.71
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$13.29
Record
98%
4630-97 (4727)
Invested
$635.59
Value
$606.3
PnL
-$29.29
Record
57%
5226-3866 (9092)
Invested
$512.86
Value
$490
PnL
-$5.8
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Both legs:
Invested
$251.22
Value
$241.98
PnL
-$9.24
Record
50%
4682-4738 (9420)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$254.76
Value
$201.99
PnL
-$8.21
Record
51%
2609-2462 (5071)
ohioismInvested
$125.86
Value
$221.75
PnL
+$95.9
Record
47%
2506-2778 (5284)
Invested
$191.92
Value
—
PnL
-$191.92
Record
55%
4649-3753 (8402)
Invested
$208.44
Value
$80.5
PnL
-$127.94
Record
47%
1208-1339 (2547)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.4
Value
$100
PnL
+$28.6
Record
63%
1989-1161 (3150)
Invested
$87
Value
$103.57
PnL
+$16.57
Record
46%
336-397 (733)
Invested
$39.4
Value
$64.99
PnL
+$25.6
Record
48%
2582-2816 (5398)
Invested
$56.72
Value
$55
PnL
-$1.72
Record
54%
1091-944 (2035)
Invested
$51.5
Value
$50.41
PnL
+$6.75
Record
66%
4070-2058 (6128)
Invested
$49.1
Value
—
PnL
-$49.1
Record
48%
2606-2865 (5471)
Invested
$38
Value
—
PnL
-$38
Record
49%
960-1012 (1972)
Invested
$33.22
Value
—
PnL
-$33.22
Record
52%
1710-1607 (3317)
Invested
$30.94
Value
—
PnL
-$30.94
Record
52%
1724-1594 (3318)
Invested
$15.9
Value
$30
PnL
+$14.1
Record
52%
5230-4894 (10124)
Invested
$27.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$22.5
Record
51%
2246-2136 (4382)
Invested
$25.36
Value
$25.09
PnL
-$0.27
Record
50%
2915-2911 (5826)
Invested
$54.87
Value
$15.38
PnL
+$4.84
Record
62%
4748-2897 (7645)
Invested
$13.2
Value
—
PnL
-$13.2
Record
50%
1006-996 (2002)
Invested
$6.96
Value
$12
PnL
+$5.04
Record
43%
2188-2930 (5118)
Invested
$10.44
Value
—
PnL
-$10.44
Record
60%
4328-2942 (7270)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.4K
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
Hcrystallash
Down — $606.3
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $241.98
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $201.99
ohioism
Down — $221.75
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RLWG
Down — $100