Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 57%
2 arb excluded
$6.8K
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
17 of 30 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$3.07 | 53% 1627-1417 (3044) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$35.26 | 49% 3651-3756 (7407) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.5¢ | $650.32 | — | -$650.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.1¢ | $526.66 | $1.1K | +$615.06 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $540.55 | $492.54 | -$4.66 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $244.21 | $492.54 | +$248.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $252.97 | — | -$253.6 | |
ST stepahead | Upavg 59.5¢ | $400 | $376.29 | -$23.72 | 55% 4634-3736 (8370) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 83.4¢ | $499.93 | $373.52 | -$126.4 | 47% 1193-1322 (2515) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 34.7¢ | $482.78 | — | -$378.43 | 58% 5209-3849 (9058) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 95.2¢ | $421.47 | $311.43 | -$110.04 | 52% 1704-1576 (3280) |
AL almach | Upavg 95¢ | $362.5 | $250 | -$112.5 | 51% 1687-1592 (3279) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 70.4¢ | $233.47 | $223.67 | -$9.42 | 51% 2574-2433 (5007) |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 46¢ | $157.59 | — | -$157.59 | 63% 1984-1153 (3137) |
 ohioism | Upavg 89.4¢ | $156.21 | $135 | -$20.21 | 47% 2471-2739 (5210) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 52¢ | $130 | — | -$130 | 51% 4946-4701 (9647) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 67.8¢ | $100.5 | $84.45 | -$7.81 | 66% 4016-2029 (6045) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 65.3¢ | $88.04 | $86.73 | -$1.31 | 60% 4284-2912 (7196) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 48.9¢ | $83.66 | — | -$78.76 | 50% 4644-4696 (9340) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Upavg 81.4¢ | $99.12 | $59.1 | -$25.22 | 58% 482-353 (835) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $40.47 | — | -$40.47 | 48% 2553-2774 (5327) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $34.04 | — | -$34.04 | 51% 2213-2109 (4322) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 97.1¢ | $34.4 | $35 | +$0.6 | 54% 1072-931 (2003) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Downavg 42.9¢ | $51.65 | — | -$51.65 | 49% 950-986 (1936) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $27 | $60 | +$33 | 43% 2435-3165 (5600) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $13.4 | $10 | -$3.4 | 50% 2877-2870 (5747) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $12.32 | $9 | -$3.32 | 65% 2855-1552 (4407) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 52.9¢ | $63.92 | $20.1 | +$8.56 | 62% 4692-2855 (7547) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 41.7¢ | $7.02 | — | -$7.02 | 52% 3078-2785 (5863) |
Invested
$3,069.05
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$3.07
Record
53%
1627-1417 (3044)
Invested
$1,176.98
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$35.26
Record
49%
3651-3756 (7407)
Both legs:
Invested
$540.55
Value
$492.54
PnL
-$4.66
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Both legs:
Invested
$400
Value
$376.29
PnL
-$23.72
Record
55%
4634-3736 (8370)
Invested
$499.93
Value
$373.52
PnL
-$126.4
Record
47%
1193-1322 (2515)
Invested
$482.78
Value
—
PnL
-$378.43
Record
58%
5209-3849 (9058)
Invested
$421.47
Value
$311.43
PnL
-$110.04
Record
52%
1704-1576 (3280)
Invested
$362.5
Value
$250
PnL
-$112.5
Record
51%
1687-1592 (3279)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$233.47
Value
$223.67
PnL
-$9.42
Record
51%
2574-2433 (5007)
Invested
$157.59
Value
—
PnL
-$157.59
Record
63%
1984-1153 (3137)
ohioismInvested
$156.21
Value
$135
PnL
-$20.21
Record
47%
2471-2739 (5210)
Invested
$130
Value
—
PnL
-$130
Record
51%
4946-4701 (9647)
Invested
$100.5
Value
$84.45
PnL
-$7.81
Record
66%
4016-2029 (6045)
Invested
$88.04
Value
$86.73
PnL
-$1.31
Record
60%
4284-2912 (7196)
Invested
$83.66
Value
—
PnL
-$78.76
Record
50%
4644-4696 (9340)
Invested
$99.12
Value
$59.1
PnL
-$25.22
Record
58%
482-353 (835)
Invested
$40.47
Value
—
PnL
-$40.47
Record
48%
2553-2774 (5327)
Invested
$34.04
Value
—
PnL
-$34.04
Record
51%
2213-2109 (4322)
Invested
$34.4
Value
$35
PnL
+$0.6
Record
54%
1072-931 (2003)
Invested
$51.65
Value
—
PnL
-$51.65
Record
49%
950-986 (1936)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$27
Value
$60
PnL
+$33
Record
43%
2435-3165 (5600)
Invested
$13.4
Value
$10
PnL
-$3.4
Record
50%
2877-2870 (5747)
Invested
$12.32
Value
$9
PnL
-$3.32
Record
65%
2855-1552 (4407)
Invested
$63.92
Value
$20.1
PnL
+$8.56
Record
62%
4692-2855 (7547)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$7.02
Value
—
PnL
-$7.02
Record
52%
3078-2785 (5863)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $3.1K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Up — $376.29
CrouchPredictions
Up — $373.52
Hcrystallash
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
Up — $311.43
almach
Up — $250
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $223.67
RLWG
CTRDown — $0