Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
26 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Down (87%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Down
30
Down 87%
2 arb excluded
$5.7K
-$140.05
90.8¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 26 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
26 of 30 top traders (87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 97.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$45.3 | 42% 2086-2846 (4932) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 97.3¢ | $864.55 | $733.46 | -$131.09 | 47% 1178-1305 (2483) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 69.9¢ | $492.04 | $697.64 | +$205.61 | 49% 3629-3730 (7359) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $504.6 | $497.52 | -$2.48 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $248.24 | $350.02 | +$101.92 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $249.61 | $147.5 | -$104.4 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 96.8¢ | $354.42 | $323.88 | -$30.54 | 52% 1673-1561 (3234) |
AL almach | Downavg 97¢ | $306.66 | $246.6 | -$60.06 | 51% 1661-1571 (3232) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 93.6¢ | $255.56 | $241.12 | -$14.45 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 82.3¢ | $196.79 | $187.99 | -$8.8 | 55% 4618-3720 (8338) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $105.5 | $105.82 | +$0.32 | 98% 4498-92 (4590) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 97.1¢ | $97.14 | $98.5 | +$1.36 | 52% 3043-2759 (5802) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $99 | $98.49 | -$0.51 | 45% 325-395 (720) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 53.4¢ | $39.75 | $74.46 | +$34.71 | 49% 215-223 (438) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $72.9 | $70.65 | -$2.25 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $66.14 | $66.49 | +$0.34 | 51% 4911-4688 (9599) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 97.3¢ | $73.66 | $59.75 | -$13.91 | 49% 938-977 (1915) |
RL RLWGARB<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $64.46 | $58.58 | -$5.88 | 63% 1977-1149 (3126) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15¢ | $40.5 | $31.05 | -$9.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77¢ | $23.96 | $27.53 | +$3.57 | |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 72.3¢ | $53.55 | $52.09 | -$1.45 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $75.3 | $48.99 | -$20.91 | 58% 463-342 (805) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $38.1 | $40.12 | +$2.02 | 53% 1050-921 (1971) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 98.6¢ | $39.44 | $39.54 | +$0.1 | 60% 4239-2880 (7119) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 52.3¢ | $25.71 | $24.33 | -$1.38 | 51% 2181-2090 (4271) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $13.61 | $18.63 | +$5.02 | 67% 3966-1997 (5963) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $18 | $18.13 | +$0.13 | 44% 2407-3121 (5528) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 66.6¢ | $11.89 | $12.61 | +$0.71 | 62% 4631-2815 (7446) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $8.5 | $8.85 | +$0.35 | 52% 5189-4868 (10057) |
Invested
$1,778.78
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$45.3
Record
42%
2086-2846 (4932)
Invested
$864.55
Value
$733.46
PnL
-$131.09
Record
47%
1178-1305 (2483)
Invested
$492.04
Value
$697.64
PnL
+$205.61
Record
49%
3629-3730 (7359)
Invested
$504.6
Value
$497.52
PnL
-$2.48
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Both legs:
Invested
$354.42
Value
$323.88
PnL
-$30.54
Record
52%
1673-1561 (3234)
Invested
$306.66
Value
$246.6
PnL
-$60.06
Record
51%
1661-1571 (3232)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$255.56
Value
$241.12
PnL
-$14.45
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
Invested
$196.79
Value
$187.99
PnL
-$8.8
Record
55%
4618-3720 (8338)
Invested
$105.5
Value
$105.82
PnL
+$0.32
Record
98%
4498-92 (4590)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$97.14
Value
$98.5
PnL
+$1.36
Record
52%
3043-2759 (5802)
Invested
$99
Value
$98.49
PnL
-$0.51
Record
45%
325-395 (720)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$39.75
Value
$74.46
PnL
+$34.71
Record
49%
215-223 (438)
Invested
$72.9
Value
$70.65
PnL
-$2.25
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
Invested
$66.14
Value
$66.49
PnL
+$0.34
Record
51%
4911-4688 (9599)
Invested
$73.66
Value
$59.75
PnL
-$13.91
Record
49%
938-977 (1915)
Invested
$64.46
Value
$58.58
PnL
-$5.88
Record
63%
1977-1149 (3126)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.55
Value
$52.09
PnL
-$1.45
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
Invested
$75.3
Value
$48.99
PnL
-$20.91
Record
58%
463-342 (805)
Invested
$38.1
Value
$40.12
PnL
+$2.02
Record
53%
1050-921 (1971)
Invested
$39.44
Value
$39.54
PnL
+$0.1
Record
60%
4239-2880 (7119)
Invested
$25.71
Value
$24.33
PnL
-$1.38
Record
51%
2181-2090 (4271)
Invested
$13.61
Value
$18.63
PnL
+$5.02
Record
67%
3966-1997 (5963)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$18
Value
$18.13
PnL
+$0.13
Record
44%
2407-3121 (5528)
Invested
$11.89
Value
$12.61
PnL
+$0.71
Record
62%
4631-2815 (7446)
Invested
$8.5
Value
$8.85
PnL
+$0.35
Record
52%
5189-4868 (10057)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $1.8K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $733.46
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $697.64
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Down — $323.88
almach
Down — $246.6
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $241.12
stepahead
Down — $187.99
hoodquant
Down — $105.82
MayorMamdani
Down — $98.5