Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

$428.6

Smart Money Signal

36 of 41 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up36 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares15,082

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,160

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 67.9¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$549.91	49% 2495-2563 (5058)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 74.4¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$88.67	49% 3629-3730 (7359)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$42.95	98% 4498-92 (4590)
RL RLWGARB<$100	Downavg 29.5¢	$2.3K	$519.99	$-1.8K	63% 1977-1149 (3126)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.5¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 73¢	$379.64	$519.99	+$140.35
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 75.4¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$96.33	58% 5191-3834 (9025)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 75.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$109.29	47% 1178-1305 (2483)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR	Downavg 33.2¢	$732.03	—	-$732.03	45% 325-395 (720)
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 90.3¢	$681.75	$755.29	+$73.54	39% 89-142 (231)
NIULAI4	Upavg 89.4¢	$662.42	$741	+$78.58	30% 590-1363 (1953)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 71.2¢	$588.03	$615.61	+$27.57	51% 2540-2400 (4940)
ST stepahead	Upavg 74.8¢	$497.03	$553.51	+$56.47	55% 4618-3720 (8338)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.4¢	$516.85	$500	+$0.88	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 67.3¢	$272.6	$405	+$132.4	48% 2544-2786 (5330)
AL almach	Upavg 87.4¢	$348.59	$276.17	-$72.42	51% 1661-1571 (3232)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 74.7¢	$203.45	$223.98	+$35.03	50% 4592-4670 (9262)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 83.9¢	$203.49	$211	+$7.51	52% 3043-2759 (5802)
Atomforge	Upavg 88.3¢	$254.84	$199.79	-$48.54	29% 333-801 (1134)
LI Little-big	Upavg 85.5¢	$153.03	$178.93	+$25.9	51% 1133-1071 (2204)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 60.9¢	$134.34	$173.48	+$39.15	49% 938-977 (1915)
ohioism	Upavg 72.9¢	$113.85	$156.14	+$42.29	48% 2440-2688 (5128)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 72.4¢	$129.71	$147.07	+$17.36	52% 5189-4868 (10057)
BO bosona	Upavg 85.3¢	$131.69	$143.79	+$16.12	51% 4911-4688 (9599)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 77.8¢	$111.63	$143.51	+$31.88	58% 463-342 (805)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 97¢	$129.98	$134	+$4.02	51% 2181-2090 (4271)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 76.4¢	$90.21	$118	+$27.79	44% 2407-3121 (5528)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$2,052.74

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$549.91

Record

49%

2495-2563 (5058)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,997.69

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$88.67

Record

49%

3629-3730 (7359)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,515.05

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$42.95

Record

98%

4498-92 (4590)

RLWGARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,325.64

Value

$519.99

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

63%

1977-1149 (3126)

Both legs:

Down$1,945.9929.5¢$-1.9K

Up$379.6473¢+$140.35

Hcrystallash

Invested

$1,408.05

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$96.33

Record

58%

5191-3834 (9025)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,157.07

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$109.29

Record

47%

1178-1305 (2483)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR

Down

Invested

$732.03

Value

—

PnL

-$732.03

Record

45%

325-395 (720)

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$681.75

Value

$755.29

PnL

+$73.54

Record

39%

89-142 (231)

NIULAI4

Invested

$662.42

Value

$741

PnL

+$78.58

Record

30%

590-1363 (1953)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$588.03

Value

$615.61

PnL

+$27.57

Record

51%

2540-2400 (4940)

stepahead

Invested

$497.03

Value

$553.51

PnL

+$56.47

Record

55%

4618-3720 (8338)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$516.85

Value

$500

PnL

+$0.88

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$272.6

Value

$405

PnL

+$132.4

Record

48%

2544-2786 (5330)

almach

Invested

$348.59

Value

$276.17

PnL

-$72.42

Record

51%

1661-1571 (3232)

asdcaxz

Invested

$203.45

Value

$223.98

PnL

+$35.03

Record

50%

4592-4670 (9262)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$203.49

Value

$211

PnL

+$7.51

Record

52%

3043-2759 (5802)

Atomforge

Invested

$254.84

Value

$199.79

PnL

-$48.54

Record

29%

333-801 (1134)

Little-big

Invested

$153.03

Value

$178.93

PnL

+$25.9

Record

51%

1133-1071 (2204)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$134.34

Value

$173.48

PnL

+$39.15

Record

49%

938-977 (1915)

ohioism

Invested

$113.85

Value

$156.14

PnL

+$42.29

Record

48%

2440-2688 (5128)

blue.birds

Invested

$129.71

Value

$147.07

PnL

+$17.36

Record

52%

5189-4868 (10057)

bosona

Invested

$131.69

Value

$143.79

PnL

+$16.12

Record

51%

4911-4688 (9599)

Alpharo28

Invested

$111.63

Value

$143.51

PnL

+$31.88

Record

58%

463-342 (805)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$129.98

Value

$134

PnL

+$4.02

Record

51%

2181-2090 (4271)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$90.21

Value

$118

PnL

+$27.79

Record

44%

2407-3121 (5528)

Smart Money Signal

36 of 41 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0643b8c7...569642

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794762000

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

Up — $2.3K

+$549.91

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $2.1K

+$88.67

hoodquant

Up — $1.6K

+$42.95

RLWG

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

$-1.8K

Hcrystallash

Up — $1.5K

+$96.33

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.3K

+$109.29

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

CTR

Down — $0

-$732.03

asabovesobelow2

Up — $755.29

+$73.54

NIULAI4

Up — $741

+$78.58

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $615.61

+$27.57

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