Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
40
Up 67%
1 arb excluded
$8.7K
-$413.06
Smart Money Signal
26 of 40 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RL RLWG | Upavg 38.5¢ | $1.1K | $2.0K | +$962.65 | 63% 1977-1149 (3126) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 25.4¢ | $602.69 | — | -$588.93 | 47% 1178-1305 (2483) |
BO bosona | Upavg 44.5¢ | $496.81 | $926.06 | +$429.24 | 51% 4911-4688 (9599) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 43.7¢ | $463.13 | — | -$445.27 | 58% 5191-3834 (9025) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Upavg 92.4¢ | $688.48 | $744.79 | +$56.31 | 45% 325-395 (720) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 59.4¢ | $585.85 | — | -$585.85 | 49% 3629-3730 (7359) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Upavg 95.2¢ | $571.58 | $600.58 | +$29 | 65% 97-52 (149) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 50.8¢ | $309.47 | $602.74 | +$293.26 | 52% 1673-1561 (3234) |
AL almach | Upavg 37.1¢ | $414.28 | $560.21 | +$510.19 | 51% 1661-1571 (3232) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $524.75 | $500 | +$12.3 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 48.7¢ | $464.04 | — | -$450.19 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $196.5 | — | -$160.6 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 76.8¢ | $296.37 | — | -$296.37 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $235.47 | $346.04 | +$110.57 | 55% 4618-3720 (8338) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.5¢ | $124.23 | — | -$124.23 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.1¢ | $111.24 | $346.04 | +$234.8 | |
 ohioism | Upavg 51.5¢ | $130 | $182.44 | +$52.44 | 48% 2440-2688 (5128) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 44¢ | $135.17 | $180 | +$44.83 | 49% 938-977 (1915) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 56.4¢ | $141.11 | $150.99 | +$9.88 | 52% 5189-4868 (10057) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 58.5¢ | $138.37 | $236.63 | +$98.26 | 51% 1133-1071 (2204) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 57.5¢ | $141.85 | $138.75 | -$1.65 | 48% 2544-2786 (5330) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 46.2¢ | $105.41 | $139.26 | +$33.85 | 48% 2518-2730 (5248) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 36.5¢ | $68.39 | — | -$68.39 | 52% 3043-2759 (5802) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 13.4¢ | $81.78 | $612 | +$530.22 | 42% 2086-2846 (4932) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 92.4¢ | $94.29 | $102 | +$7.71 | 30% 590-1363 (1953) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Upavg 90.5¢ | $91.25 | $100.81 | +$9.56 | 39% 89-142 (231) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 42.2¢ | $46.39 | $100.65 | +$54.26 | 44% 2407-3121 (5528) |
Invested
$1,072.32
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$962.65
Record
63%
1977-1149 (3126)
Invested
$602.69
Value
—
PnL
-$588.93
Record
47%
1178-1305 (2483)
Invested
$496.81
Value
$926.06
PnL
+$429.24
Record
51%
4911-4688 (9599)
Invested
$463.13
Value
—
PnL
-$445.27
Record
58%
5191-3834 (9025)
Invested
$688.48
Value
$744.79
PnL
+$56.31
Record
45%
325-395 (720)
Invested
$585.85
Value
—
PnL
-$585.85
Record
49%
3629-3730 (7359)
Invested
$571.58
Value
$600.58
PnL
+$29
Record
65%
97-52 (149)
Invested
$309.47
Value
$602.74
PnL
+$293.26
Record
52%
1673-1561 (3234)
Invested
$414.28
Value
$560.21
PnL
+$510.19
Record
51%
1661-1571 (3232)
Invested
$524.75
Value
$500
PnL
+$12.3
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$464.04
Value
—
PnL
-$450.19
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
Invested
$196.5
Value
—
PnL
-$160.6
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
Invested
$296.37
Value
—
PnL
-$296.37
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
Invested
$235.47
Value
$346.04
PnL
+$110.57
Record
55%
4618-3720 (8338)
Both legs:
ohioismInvested
$130
Value
$182.44
PnL
+$52.44
Record
48%
2440-2688 (5128)
Invested
$135.17
Value
$180
PnL
+$44.83
Record
49%
938-977 (1915)
Invested
$141.11
Value
$150.99
PnL
+$9.88
Record
52%
5189-4868 (10057)
Invested
$138.37
Value
$236.63
PnL
+$98.26
Record
51%
1133-1071 (2204)
Invested
$141.85
Value
$138.75
PnL
-$1.65
Record
48%
2544-2786 (5330)
Invested
$105.41
Value
$139.26
PnL
+$33.85
Record
48%
2518-2730 (5248)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$68.39
Value
—
PnL
-$68.39
Record
52%
3043-2759 (5802)
Invested
$81.78
Value
$612
PnL
+$530.22
Record
42%
2086-2846 (4932)
NIULAI4Invested
$94.29
Value
$102
PnL
+$7.71
Record
30%
590-1363 (1953)
Invested
$91.25
Value
$100.81
PnL
+$9.56
Record
39%
89-142 (231)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$46.39
Value
$100.65
PnL
+$54.26
Record
44%
2407-3121 (5528)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RLWG
Up — $2.0K
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $926.06
Hcrystallash
CTRDown — $0
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Up — $744.79
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Up — $600.58
mo-money
Up — $602.74
almach
Up — $560.21
ByteBadger92
Up — $500