Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

27 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Up (87%) · Up at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Up99¢Down1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 87%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$171.2

Smart Money Entry

80.9¢ → 98.5¢

+22% since entry · 27 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

27 of 31 top traders (87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up27 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,716

Combined PnL-$120.98

Down4 traders

Total Value$14.91

Total Shares284

Combined PnL-$50.22

Up — 87%Down — 13%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 79.3¢	$826.83	$803.01	-$23.82	58% 5174-3818 (8992)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 76.2¢	$440.5	$569.07	+$128.57	45% 321-391 (712)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$513.76	$496.05	+$2.11	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$249.73	$284.96	+$38.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$246.77	$211.09	-$36.25
ST stepahead	Upavg 72.9¢	$429.06	$440.08	+$11.02	55% 4601-3705 (8306)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 81.7¢	$556.72	$428.14	-$128.58	47% 1165-1288 (2453)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$390.06	$388.09	-$1.97	98% 4434-91 (4525)
AL almach	Upavg 88.4¢	$449.88	$383.27	-$26.48	51% 1638-1554 (3192)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 52.2¢	$576.5	$290.81	-$285.68	49% 2456-2514 (4970)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.8¢	$152.5	$181.26	+$28.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.2¢	$424	$109.56	-$314.44
BO bosona	Upavg 82.3¢	$646.44	$281.44	-$135.37	51% 4890-4670 (9560)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 89.8¢	$219.14	$240.43	+$21.28	51% 2151-2062 (4213)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 79.3¢	$249.32	$194.88	+$18.98	62% 4574-2778 (7352)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 79.2¢	$124.32	$120.37	-$2.82	58% 449-327 (776)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 60.4¢	$87.57	$119.71	+$32.14	48% 2509-2762 (5271)
MO mo-money	Upavg 93¢	$460.02	$119.6	-$95.41	52% 1650-1545 (3195)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 66.6¢	$64.26	$94.33	+$30.07	48% 2407-2652 (5059)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 77.9¢	$70.07	$88.65	+$18.58	30% 579-1350 (1929)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Upavg 77.6¢	$58.75	$74.57	+$15.82	38% 88-141 (229)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 85.4¢	$84.47	$58.24	-$7.51	52% 5172-4852 (10024)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 65.6¢	$42.64	$49.85	+$7.21	48% 2484-2691 (5175)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 69.5¢	$41.48	$40.99	-$0.5	44% 2374-3081 (5455)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 86.1¢	$37.35	$39.93	+$2.57	53% 1026-913 (1939)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 55¢	$38.9	$38.07	+$17.91	50% 4548-4636 (9184)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 71.7¢	$35.49	$32.93	-$2.56	52% 2997-2745 (5742)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 74.7¢	$19.6	$25.83	+$6.23	29% 325-793 (1118)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Upavg 93¢	$23.5	$20.59	-$2.91	58% 152-108 (260)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$826.83

Value

$803.01

PnL

-$23.82

Record

58%

5174-3818 (8992)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$440.5

Value

$569.07

PnL

+$128.57

Record

45%

321-391 (712)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$513.76

Value

$496.05

PnL

+$2.11

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Both legs:

Up$249.7350.4¢+$38.36

Down$246.7749.7¢-$36.25

stepahead

Invested

$429.06

Value

$440.08

PnL

+$11.02

Record

55%

4601-3705 (8306)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$556.72

Value

$428.14

PnL

-$128.58

Record

47%

1165-1288 (2453)

hoodquant

Invested

$390.06

Value

$388.09

PnL

-$1.97

Record

98%

4434-91 (4525)

almach

Invested

$449.88

Value

$383.27

PnL

-$26.48

Record

51%

1638-1554 (3192)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$576.5

Value

$290.81

PnL

-$285.68

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

Both legs:

Up$152.572.8¢+$28.76

Down$42452.2¢-$314.44

bosona

Invested

$646.44

Value

$281.44

PnL

-$135.37

Record

51%

4890-4670 (9560)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$219.14

Value

$240.43

PnL

+$21.28

Record

51%

2151-2062 (4213)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$249.32

Value

$194.88

PnL

+$18.98

Record

62%

4574-2778 (7352)

Alpharo28

Invested

$124.32

Value

$120.37

PnL

-$2.82

Record

58%

449-327 (776)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$87.57

Value

$119.71

PnL

+$32.14

Record

48%

2509-2762 (5271)

mo-money

Invested

$460.02

Value

$119.6

PnL

-$95.41

Record

52%

1650-1545 (3195)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$64.26

Value

$94.33

PnL

+$30.07

Record

48%

2407-2652 (5059)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$70.07

Value

$88.65

PnL

+$18.58

Record

30%

579-1350 (1929)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Invested

$58.75

Value

$74.57

PnL

+$15.82

Record

38%

88-141 (229)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$84.47

Value

$58.24

PnL

-$7.51

Record

52%

5172-4852 (10024)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$42.64

Value

$49.85

PnL

+$7.21

Record

48%

2484-2691 (5175)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$41.48

Value

$40.99

PnL

-$0.5

Record

44%

2374-3081 (5455)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$37.35

Value

$39.93

PnL

+$2.57

Record

53%

1026-913 (1939)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$38.9

Value

$38.07

PnL

+$17.91

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$35.49

Value

$32.93

PnL

-$2.56

Record

52%

2997-2745 (5742)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$19.6

Value

$25.83

PnL

+$6.23

Record

29%

325-793 (1118)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Invested

$23.5

Value

$20.59

PnL

-$2.91

Record

58%

152-108 (260)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

27 of 31 top traders (87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.