Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$52.39

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 35 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,543

Combined PnL+$585.36

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,019

Combined PnL-$637.75

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.2¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$225.41	49% 3600-3701 (7301)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 77.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$39.2	47% 1165-1288 (2453)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$606.61	$612.99	+$6.38	98% 4434-91 (4525)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 65.7¢	$566.85	$586.51	+$27.72	58% 5174-3818 (8992)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$522.37	$492.01	-$3.59	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$248.44	$492.01	+$248
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$249.96	—	-$251.59
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 76¢	$321.42	$351.4	+$29.97	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 29.6¢	$504.62	—	-$440.63	49% 2456-2514 (4970)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 71.5¢	$188.25	$263.11	+$74.86	45% 321-391 (712)
ST stepahead	Downavg 68.9¢	$219.2	$224.96	+$5.76	55% 4601-3705 (8306)
LI Little-big	Downavg 59.8¢	$119.63	$200	+$80.37	51% 1119-1061 (2180)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 87.1¢	$201.81	$183.26	-$18.55	50% 4548-4636 (9184)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 54.4¢	$153.6	$148.28	-$1.13	48% 2484-2691 (5175)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 47¢	$135.67	$100	-$35.67	48% 2509-2762 (5271)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$84.77	—	-$84.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$50.9	$100	+$49.1
AS asdaefef	Downavg 87.2¢	$113.79	$113.97	+$1.12	66% 3908-1973 (5881)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 78¢	$114.92	$115	+$10.28	58% 449-327 (776)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$41.25	$73.42	+$32.17	49% 209-220 (429)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 82.2¢	$82.17	$98.08	+$15.91	52% 2997-2745 (5742)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 90.5¢	$58.93	$61.31	+$2.38	53% 1026-913 (1939)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 86.1¢	$46.73	$50.13	+$4.16	50% 2795-2794 (5589)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Upavg 35.3¢	$46.15	—	-$46.15	49% 932-964 (1896)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 7¢	$81.37	—	-$32.07	52% 1650-1545 (3195)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 23.7¢	$35.47	—	-$35.47	44% 2374-3081 (5455)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 60.8¢	$92.05	$35.25	+$23.45	62% 4574-2778 (7352)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 7¢	$35	—	-$35	51% 1638-1554 (3192)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$11.19	—	-$11.19	70% 1807-771 (2578)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,047.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$225.41

Record

49%

3600-3701 (7301)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,003.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$39.2

Record

47%

1165-1288 (2453)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$606.61

Value

$612.99

PnL

+$6.38

Record

98%

4434-91 (4525)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$566.85

Value

$586.51

PnL

+$27.72

Record

58%

5174-3818 (8992)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$522.37

Value

$492.01

PnL

-$3.59

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Both legs:

Down$248.4450.5¢+$248

Up$249.9649.2¢-$251.59

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$321.42

Value

$351.4

PnL

+$29.97

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$504.62

Value

—

PnL

-$440.63

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$188.25

Value

$263.11

PnL

+$74.86

Record

45%

321-391 (712)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$219.2

Value

$224.96

PnL

+$5.76

Record

55%

4601-3705 (8306)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$119.63

Value

$200

PnL

+$80.37

Record

51%

1119-1061 (2180)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$201.81

Value

$183.26

PnL

-$18.55

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$153.6

Value

$148.28

PnL

-$1.13

Record

48%

2484-2691 (5175)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$135.67

Value

$100

PnL

-$35.67

Record

48%

2509-2762 (5271)

Both legs:

Invested

$113.79

Value

$113.97

PnL

+$1.12

Record

66%

3908-1973 (5881)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$114.92

Value

$115

PnL

+$10.28

Record

58%

449-327 (776)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$41.25

Value

$73.42

PnL

+$32.17

Record

49%

209-220 (429)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$82.17

Value

$98.08

PnL

+$15.91

Record

52%

2997-2745 (5742)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$58.93

Value

$61.31

PnL

+$2.38

Record

53%

1026-913 (1939)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$46.73

Value

$50.13

PnL

+$4.16

Record

50%

2795-2794 (5589)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Invested

$46.15

Value

—

PnL

-$46.15

Record

49%

932-964 (1896)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$81.37

Value

—

PnL

-$32.07

Record

52%

1650-1545 (3195)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$35.47

Value

—

PnL

-$35.47

Record

44%

2374-3081 (5455)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$92.05

Value

$35.25

PnL

+$23.45

Record

62%

4574-2778 (7352)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$35

Value

—

PnL

-$35

Record

51%

1638-1554 (3192)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$11.19

Value

—

PnL

-$11.19

Record

70%

1807-771 (2578)

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 35 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xca70487c...daf83c

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794754800

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $1.3K

+$225.41

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.0K

+$39.2

hoodquant

Down — $612.99

+$6.38

Hcrystallash

Down — $586.51

+$27.72

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$3.59

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $351.4

+$29.97

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

-$440.63

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down — $263.11

+$74.86

stepahead

Down — $224.96

+$5.76

Little-big

Down — $200

+$80.37

Trade on Polymarket