Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$10.13

Smart Money Signal

22 of 34 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares9,828

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,452

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Up — 65%Down — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 76.9¢	$2.2K	$2.9K	+$661.58	49% 2434-2485 (4919)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 34¢	$724.95	$1.2K	+$451.33	45% 318-390 (708)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.1	98% 4362-90 (4452)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 82.2¢	$748.54	$897.96	+$149.43	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
ST stepahead	Upavg 69¢	$803.26	$888.63	+$85.36	55% 4579-3695 (8274)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$729.64	$486.8	-$242.84	58% 5157-3805 (8962)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.7¢	$295.38	$486.8	+$191.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$434.27	—	-$434.27
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 49.8¢	$503.13	$495.97	+$16.64	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 30.9¢	$226.87	$455.99	+$235.08	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 52.6¢	$366.8	$437.46	+$75.32	48% 1151-1270 (2421)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 23.4¢	$375.15	—	-$360.52	52% 1628-1527 (3155)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 64.6¢	$381.89	$399.79	+$17.9	50% 4512-4591 (9103)
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 83.2¢	$426.5	$301.73	-$122.28	38% 86-138 (224)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 17.9¢	$183.53	—	-$183.53	51% 1622-1530 (3152)
NIULAI4	Upavg 82.4¢	$372.96	$277	-$91.52	30% 572-1335 (1907)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 53.3¢	$213.8	—	-$213.8	52% 5154-4832 (9986)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 69¢	$235.63	$221.69	-$13.95	44% 2349-3036 (5385)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69¢	$153.01	$221.69	+$68.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.8¢	$82.63	—	-$82.63
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 77.4¢	$140.23	$111.65	-$28.58	67% 3861-1939 (5800)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.8¢	$53.8	—	-$53.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.4¢	$86.43	$111.65	+$25.22
MayorMamdaniCTR	Downavg 65.4¢	$199.26	—	-$199.26	52% 2972-2710 (5682)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 87.4¢	$114.94	$120	+$5.06	53% 1008-899 (1907)
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 67.3¢	$99.03	$112.49	+$13.46	48% 2373-2615 (4988)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.3¢	$75.76	$112.49	+$36.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 21¢	$23.27	—	-$23.27
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 27.2¢	$77.79	$73.85	-$3.94	48% 2474-2726 (5200)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.2¢	$52.64	—	-$52.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.1¢	$25.15	$73.85	+$48.7
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 81¢	$90.11	$80	-$10.11	49% 923-952 (1875)
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.9¢	$25.31	—	-$25.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 81¢	$64.8	$80	+$15.2
Atomforge	Upavg 78.9¢	$142.1	$93.21	-$48.89	29% 324-789 (1113)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 69.4¢	$114.99	$84.11	+$30.33	62% 4514-2735 (7249)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 29.7¢	$73.6	$40	-$33.6	48% 2455-2651 (5106)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.7¢	$56.5	—	-$56.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$17.1	$40	+$22.9

uninformedfloww

Invested

$2,204.6

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$661.58

Record

49%

2434-2485 (4919)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$724.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$451.33

Record

45%

318-390 (708)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,098.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.1

Record

98%

4362-90 (4452)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$748.54

Value

$897.96

PnL

+$149.43

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

stepahead

Invested

$803.26

Value

$888.63

PnL

+$85.36

Record

55%

4579-3695 (8274)

HcrystallashARB<$100

Down

Invested

$729.64

Value

$486.8

PnL

-$242.84

Record

58%

5157-3805 (8962)

Both legs:

Up$295.3860.7¢+$191.42

Down$434.2748.7¢-$434.27

ByteBadger92

Invested

$503.13

Value

$495.97

PnL

+$16.64

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$226.87

Value

$455.99

PnL

+$235.08

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$366.8

Value

$437.46

PnL

+$75.32

Record

48%

1151-1270 (2421)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$375.15

Value

—

PnL

-$360.52

Record

52%

1628-1527 (3155)

asdcaxz

Invested

$381.89

Value

$399.79

PnL

+$17.9

Record

50%

4512-4591 (9103)

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$426.5

Value

$301.73

PnL

-$122.28

Record

38%

86-138 (224)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$183.53

Value

—

PnL

-$183.53

Record

51%

1622-1530 (3152)

NIULAI4

Invested

$372.96

Value

$277

PnL

-$91.52

Record

30%

572-1335 (1907)

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$213.8

Value

—

PnL

-$213.8

Record

52%

5154-4832 (9986)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$235.63

Value

$221.69

PnL

-$13.95

Record

44%

2349-3036 (5385)

Both legs:

Up$153.0169¢+$68.68

Down$82.6341.8¢-$82.63

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$140.23

Value

$111.65

PnL

-$28.58

Record

67%

3861-1939 (5800)

Both legs:

Invested

$199.26

Value

—

PnL

-$199.26

Record

52%

2972-2710 (5682)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$114.94

Value

$120

PnL

+$5.06

Record

53%

1008-899 (1907)

ohioismARB<$100

Invested

$99.03

Value

$112.49

PnL

+$13.46

Record

48%

2373-2615 (4988)

Both legs:

Up$75.7667.3¢+$36.73

Down$23.2721¢-$23.27

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$77.79

Value

$73.85

PnL

-$3.94

Record

48%

2474-2726 (5200)

Both legs:

Down$52.6427.2¢-$52.64

Up$25.1534.1¢+$48.7

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$90.11

Value

$80

PnL

-$10.11

Record

49%

923-952 (1875)

Both legs:

Down$25.3122.9¢-$25.31

Up$64.881¢+$15.2

Atomforge

Invested

$142.1

Value

$93.21

PnL

-$48.89

Record

29%

324-789 (1113)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$114.99

Value

$84.11

PnL

+$30.33

Record

62%

4514-2735 (7249)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$73.6

Value

$40

PnL

-$33.6

Record

48%

2455-2651 (5106)

Both legs:

Down$56.529.7¢-$56.5

Up$17.142.7¢+$22.9

Smart Money Signal

22 of 34 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x69bb5c54...375f59

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794748500

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

Up — $2.9K

+$661.58

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Up — $1.2K

+$451.33

hoodquant

Up — $1.1K

+$11.1

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $897.96

+$149.43

stepahead

Up — $888.63

+$85.36

Hcrystallash

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$242.84

ByteBadger92

Up — $495.97

+$16.64

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $455.99

+$235.08

CrouchPredictions

Up — $437.46

mo-money

Down — $0