Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.7K

Combined PnL

$-13.2K

Smart Money Signal

33 of 45 top traders (73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares22,891

Combined PnL$-20.6K

Up33 traders

Total Value$30.7K

Total Shares30,743

Combined PnL+$7.4K

Down — 27%Up — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118CTR	Downavg 57.3¢	$13.7K	—	$-13.3K	50% 24-24 (48)
RL RLWG	Upavg 48.2¢	$7.6K	$9.8K	+$2.1K	63% 1967-1133 (3100)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 64.5¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$170.56	66% 95-50 (145)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 55.4¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.1K	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
Atomforge	Upavg 45.8¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$504.16	29% 324-789 (1113)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144	Upavg 48.6¢	$815.73	$1.7K	+$861.08	59% 150-105 (255)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 38.7¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$504.76	48% 1151-1270 (2421)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 47.6¢	$749.64	$1.6K	+$825.44	45% 318-390 (708)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$39.69	98% 4362-90 (4452)
ST stepaheadCTR	Downavg 46.8¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	55% 4579-3695 (8274)
BO bosona	Upavg 41.6¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	+$582.31	51% 4872-4649 (9521)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 53.3¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.81	51% 2128-2037 (4165)
AL almach	Upavg 41.9¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	+$580.3	51% 1622-1530 (3152)
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 48.3¢	$821.75	$1.0K	+$189.05	38% 86-138 (224)
wowitsamazing	Upavg 41.7¢	$573.86	$950.68	+$382.87	49% 205-216 (421)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 61.1¢	$858.63	$849.51	-$9.13	58% 5157-3805 (8962)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$542.42	$494.12	+$21.26	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$248.31	$494.12	+$258.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$235.16	—	-$237
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 46.6¢	$2.7K	$610.55	+$316.01	49% 2434-2485 (4919)
MO mo-money	Upavg 41.7¢	$1.8K	$854.2	+$536.4	52% 1628-1527 (3155)
Bossgirl	Upavg 55.7¢	$267.4	$235	-$20.25	59% 97-67 (164)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819	Upavg 50.7¢	$210.16	$207.73	-$2.43	51% 106-102 (208)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 57.8¢	$182.77	$217.08	+$34.31	50% 4512-4591 (9103)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.8¢	$125.38	$217.08	+$91.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.5¢	$57.39	—	-$57.39
LI Little-big	Upavg 55.6¢	$109.05	$196	+$86.95	51% 1104-1049 (2153)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 45.2¢	$155.55	$206	+$50.45	52% 2972-2710 (5682)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.7¢	$77.57	$206	+$128.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.2¢	$77.98	—	-$77.98

0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118CTR

Down

Invested

$13,654.37

Value

—

PnL

$-13.3K

Record

50%

24-24 (48)

RLWG

Invested

$7,631.61

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

63%

1967-1133 (3100)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$3,053.55

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$170.56

Record

66%

95-50 (145)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$2,171.94

Value

—

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

Atomforge

Invested

$1,658.25

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$504.16

Record

29%

324-789 (1113)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Invested

$815.73

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$861.08

Record

59%

150-105 (255)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,116.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$504.76

Record

48%

1151-1270 (2421)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$749.64

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$825.44

Record

45%

318-390 (708)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,392.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$39.69

Record

98%

4362-90 (4452)

stepaheadCTR

Down

Invested

$1,157.32

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

4579-3695 (8274)

bosona

Invested

$1,830.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$582.31

Record

51%

4872-4649 (9521)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$1,103.51

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,070.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.81

Record

51%

2128-2037 (4165)

almach

Invested

$1,508.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$580.3

Record

51%

1622-1530 (3152)

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$821.75

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$189.05

Record

38%

86-138 (224)

wowitsamazing

Invested

$573.86

Value

$950.68

PnL

+$382.87

Record

49%

205-216 (421)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$858.63

Value

$849.51

PnL

-$9.13

Record

58%

5157-3805 (8962)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$542.42

Value

$494.12

PnL

+$21.26

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Both legs:

Up$248.3150.3¢+$258.26

Down$235.1648¢-$237

uninformedfloww

Invested

$2,669.54

Value

$610.55

PnL

+$316.01

Record

49%

2434-2485 (4919)

mo-money

Invested

$1,846.29

Value

$854.2

PnL

+$536.4

Record

52%

1628-1527 (3155)

Bossgirl

Invested

$267.4

Value

$235

PnL

-$20.25

Record

59%

97-67 (164)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Invested

$210.16

Value

$207.73

PnL

-$2.43

Record

51%

106-102 (208)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$182.77

Value

$217.08

PnL

+$34.31

Record

50%

4512-4591 (9103)

Both legs:

Up$125.3857.8¢+$91.7

Down$57.3934.5¢-$57.39

Little-big

Invested

$109.05

Value

$196

PnL

+$86.95

Record

51%

1104-1049 (2153)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$155.55

Value

$206

PnL

+$50.45

Record

52%

2972-2710 (5682)

Both legs:

Up$77.5737.7¢+$128.43

Down$77.9845.2¢-$77.98

Smart Money Signal

33 of 45 top traders (73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4bd763a0...26fb69

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794746700

Traders in this Market

0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118

CTR

Down — $0

$-13.3K

RLWG

Up — $9.8K

+$2.1K

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Up — $2.9K

-$170.56

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Down — $0

$-2.1K

Atomforge

Up — $2.2K

+$504.16

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Up — $1.7K

+$861.08

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.6K

+$504.76

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Up — $1.6K

+$825.44

hoodquant

Up — $1.4K

stepahead

Down — $0