Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$877.85

Smart Money Signal

24 of 28 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares6,868

Combined PnL+$946.86

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares368

Combined PnL-$69.01

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 84¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$291.03	42% 1925-2669 (4594)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 97.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$3.06	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
MO mo-money	Upavg 87¢	$498.06	$553.23	+$55.17	52% 1584-1490 (3074)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.5¢	$514.68	$495.01	+$0.5	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 78.7¢	$388.3	$486.8	+$98.51	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
BO bosona	Upavg 76.3¢	$381.27	$500	+$118.73	51% 4829-4609 (9438)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 74.9¢	$299.25	$399.52	+$100.27	48% 1126-1234 (2360)
LI Little-big	Upavg 57.6¢	$132.46	$230	+$97.54	51% 1073-1021 (2094)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 79.9¢	$138.27	$157.7	+$19.43	53% 970-876 (1846)
ST stepahead	Upavg 76.3¢	$137.17	$138.83	+$1.67	55% 4545-3668 (8213)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 63.7¢	$104.24	$113.97	+$11.78	58% 5126-3784 (8910)
AL almach	Upavg 98.8¢	$608.95	$96.79	+$111.81	52% 1584-1489 (3073)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 94.6¢	$83.5	$83.52	+$0.02	67% 3766-1879 (5645)
wowitsamazingARB<$100	Upavg 62¢	$56.25	$67.74	+$11.49	48% 199-216 (415)
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.4¢	$14.25	—	-$14.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$42	$67.74	+$25.74
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 90.3¢	$71.71	$60	-$11.71	49% 908-934 (1842)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Upavg 73¢	$43.8	$60	+$16.2	57% 393-300 (693)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Upavg 80¢	$42	$52.5	+$10.5	44% 309-388 (697)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 97.4¢	$191.25	$39.35	+$4.73	62% 4407-2657 (7064)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 76.7¢	$28.39	$37	+$8.61	48% 1426-1527 (2953)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 35.3¢	$46.25	—	-$46.25	51% 2054-1988 (4042)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 95¢	$23.75	$25	+$1.25	44% 2305-2951 (5256)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 91¢	$22.75	$25	+$2.25	48% 2415-2654 (5069)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 99.6¢	$59.76	$20	+$1.28	60% 4054-2741 (6795)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 89.9¢	$17.64	$18.36	+$1.1	65% 2664-1450 (4114)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$15	—	-$15	50% 908-909 (1817)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$1,532.97

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$291.03

Record

42%

1925-2669 (4594)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,425.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$3.06

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

mo-money

Invested

$498.06

Value

$553.23

PnL

+$55.17

Record

52%

1584-1490 (3074)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$514.68

Value

$495.01

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$388.3

Value

$486.8

PnL

+$98.51

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

bosona

Invested

$381.27

Value

$500

PnL

+$118.73

Record

51%

4829-4609 (9438)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$299.25

Value

$399.52

PnL

+$100.27

Record

48%

1126-1234 (2360)

Little-big

Invested

$132.46

Value

$230

PnL

+$97.54

Record

51%

1073-1021 (2094)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$138.27

Value

$157.7

PnL

+$19.43

Record

53%

970-876 (1846)

stepahead

Invested

$137.17

Value

$138.83

PnL

+$1.67

Record

55%

4545-3668 (8213)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$104.24

Value

$113.97

PnL

+$11.78

Record

58%

5126-3784 (8910)

almach

Invested

$608.95

Value

$96.79

PnL

+$111.81

Record

52%

1584-1489 (3073)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$83.5

Value

$83.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

wowitsamazingARB<$100

Invested

$56.25

Value

$67.74

PnL

+$11.49

Record

48%

199-216 (415)

Both legs:

Down$14.2519.4¢-$14.25

Up$4262¢+$25.74

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$71.71

Value

$60

PnL

-$11.71

Record

49%

908-934 (1842)

Alpharo28<$100

Invested

$43.8

Value

$60

PnL

+$16.2

Record

57%

393-300 (693)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$10.5

Record

44%

309-388 (697)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$191.25

Value

$39.35

PnL

+$4.73

Record

62%

4407-2657 (7064)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$28.39

Value

$37

PnL

+$8.61

Record

48%

1426-1527 (2953)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$46.25

Value

—

PnL

-$46.25

Record

51%

2054-1988 (4042)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$23.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

44%

2305-2951 (5256)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$22.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$2.25

Record

48%

2415-2654 (5069)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$59.76

Value

$20

PnL

+$1.28

Record

60%

4054-2741 (6795)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$17.64

Value

$18.36

PnL

+$1.1

Record

65%

2664-1450 (4114)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

50%

908-909 (1817)

Smart Money Signal

24 of 28 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8b69d578...323bd8

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794733200

Traders in this Market

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $1.8K

+$291.03

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $1.4K

+$3.06

mo-money

Up — $553.23

+$55.17

ByteBadger92

Up — $495.01

+$0.5

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $486.8

+$98.51

bosona

Up — $500

+$118.73

CrouchPredictions

Up — $399.52

+$100.27

Little-big

Up — $230

+$97.54

EZTRADENL2

Up — $157.7

+$19.43

stepahead

Up — $138.83

+$1.67

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