Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$485.9

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 34 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,707

Combined PnL+$739.22

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,426

Combined PnL-$253.32

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$155.41	50% 3448-3455 (6903)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.6¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$595.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.6¢	$440.45	—	-$440.45
ST stepahead	Downavg 75.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$77.42	55% 4526-3656 (8182)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 76.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$90.39	48% 1107-1223 (2330)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 78.5¢	$749.43	$955.19	+$205.76	44% 306-387 (693)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$820.74	$659.93	+$33.49	51% 2371-2247 (4618)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.9¢	$500.64	$659.93	+$136.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.7¢	$144.48	—	-$103.06
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.2¢	$507.29	$500	+$3.6	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 81.1¢	$403.25	$497.43	+$94.18	37% 79-135 (214)
NIULAI4	Downavg 81.3¢	$400.74	$493.11	+$92.37	29% 536-1306 (1842)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 80.3¢	$526.03	$409.92	-$116.11	58% 5114-3771 (8885)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 81.7¢	$383.38	$404.75	+$21.37	52% 948-867 (1815)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$293.16	$296.12	+$2.96	98% 4160-87 (4247)
AL almach	Downavg 74.1¢	$829.78	$249.99	+$70.6	52% 1562-1470 (3032)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 93.5¢	$221.04	$211.63	-$9.41	67% 3707-1852 (5559)
MO mo-money	Downavg 59.4¢	$466.21	$200.43	+$165.76	51% 1558-1472 (3030)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$136.69	$140	+$3.31	49% 899-931 (1830)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.6¢	$101.6	$140	+$38.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.5¢	$35.09	—	-$35.09
Atomforge	Downavg 81¢	$112.7	$139.16	+$26.46	28% 299-782 (1081)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$226.13	$131	-$95.13	51% 2031-1950 (3981)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 75.4¢	$170.82	$133.1	+$5.18	56% 375-295 (670)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 94.2¢	$137.3	$113.67	-$8.73	62% 4354-2613 (6967)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 77¢	$87.45	$85.11	-$2.34	52% 2876-2608 (5484)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$67.03	$74.5	+$13.97	47% 2283-2527 (4810)
BO bosona	Downavg 66¢	$427.48	$64	+$69.02	51% 4806-4590 (9396)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 87.2¢	$69.79	$58.5	-$11.29	52% 5102-4793 (9895)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$92.07	$93.97	+$31.39	60% 3996-2713 (6709)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 67.4¢	$33.7	$50	+$16.3	64% 1942-1103 (3045)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,021.8

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$155.41

Record

50%

3448-3455 (6903)

Both legs:

Down$1,581.3672.6¢+$595.86

Up$440.4520.6¢-$440.45

stepahead

Down

Invested

$1,268.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$77.42

Record

55%

4526-3656 (8182)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,098.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$90.39

Record

48%

1107-1223 (2330)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$749.43

Value

$955.19

PnL

+$205.76

Record

44%

306-387 (693)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$820.74

Value

$659.93

PnL

+$33.49

Record

51%

2371-2247 (4618)

Both legs:

Down$500.6475.9¢+$136.55

Up$144.4821.7¢-$103.06

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$507.29

Value

$500

PnL

+$3.6

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$403.25

Value

$497.43

PnL

+$94.18

Record

37%

79-135 (214)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$400.74

Value

$493.11

PnL

+$92.37

Record

29%

536-1306 (1842)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$526.03

Value

$409.92

PnL

-$116.11

Record

58%

5114-3771 (8885)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$383.38

Value

$404.75

PnL

+$21.37

Record

52%

948-867 (1815)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$293.16

Value

$296.12

PnL

+$2.96

Record

98%

4160-87 (4247)

almach

Down

Invested

$829.78

Value

$249.99

PnL

+$70.6

Record

52%

1562-1470 (3032)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$221.04

Value

$211.63

PnL

-$9.41

Record

67%

3707-1852 (5559)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$466.21

Value

$200.43

PnL

+$165.76

Record

51%

1558-1472 (3030)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$136.69

Value

$140

PnL

+$3.31

Record

49%

899-931 (1830)

Both legs:

Down$101.672.6¢+$38.4

Up$35.0922.5¢-$35.09

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$112.7

Value

$139.16

PnL

+$26.46

Record

28%

299-782 (1081)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$226.13

Value

$131

PnL

-$95.13

Record

51%

2031-1950 (3981)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$170.82

Value

$133.1

PnL

+$5.18

Record

56%

375-295 (670)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$137.3

Value

$113.67

PnL

-$8.73

Record

62%

4354-2613 (6967)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$87.45

Value

$85.11

PnL

-$2.34

Record

52%

2876-2608 (5484)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$67.03

Value

$74.5

PnL

+$13.97

Record

47%

2283-2527 (4810)

bosona

Down

Invested

$427.48

Value

$64

PnL

+$69.02

Record

51%

4806-4590 (9396)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$69.79

Value

$58.5

PnL

-$11.29

Record

52%

5102-4793 (9895)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$92.07

Value

$93.97

PnL

+$31.39

Record

60%

3996-2713 (6709)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$33.7

Value

$50

PnL

+$16.3

Record

64%

1942-1103 (3045)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 34 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa525f280...23daa6

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794725100

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$155.41

stepahead

Down — $1.3K

+$77.42

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.2K

+$90.39

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down — $955.19

+$205.76

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$33.49

ByteBadger92

Down — $500

+$3.6

asabovesobelow2

Down — $497.43

+$94.18

NIULAI4

Down — $493.11

+$92.37

Hcrystallash

Down — $409.92

-$116.11

EZTRADENL2

Down — $404.75

+$21.37

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