Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

21 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Down (68%) · Down at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$183.33

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 31 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares6,719

Combined PnL+$255.85

Up10 traders

Total Value$169.66

Total Shares955

Combined PnL-$72.52

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$24.07	98% 4120-86 (4206)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 83.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$19.23	48% 1102-1211 (2313)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 65.4¢	$653.12	$937.02	+$283.9	50% 3424-3398 (6822)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$518.91	$500	+$2.3	54% 3871-3256 (7127)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$248.65	$262.5	+$13.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$250.3	$237.5	-$11.3
MO mo-money	Downavg 86¢	$665	$500	-$165	51% 1543-1462 (3005)
BO bosona	Downavg 87.7¢	$698.12	$471.33	-$67.57	51% 4792-4578 (9370)
ST stepahead	Downavg 69.9¢	$424.13	$446.81	+$22.68	55% 4512-3652 (8164)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 76.7¢	$458.39	$431.18	-$23.85	58% 5103-3764 (8867)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 91.5¢	$372.49	$392.79	+$20.3	52% 938-859 (1797)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 77.7¢	$410.51	$255.04	+$32.92	51% 2355-2225 (4580)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 51.8¢	$132.78	$255.03	+$122.25	51% 2012-1937 (3949)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 61.9¢	$209.29	$159.31	+$2.32	56% 364-289 (653)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 85.9¢	$105.78	$103.47	-$2.31	49% 896-928 (1824)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 17.3¢	$105.83	$100.98	-$4.86	43% 1894-2540 (4434)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 86¢	$93.88	$73.6	-$20.28	52% 1551-1455 (3006)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 87.6¢	$79.48	$72.5	-$6.98	52% 2858-2596 (5454)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 73.9¢	$53.73	$63.11	+$9.38	60% 3969-2697 (6666)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 97¢	$26.41	$25.91	-$0.5	50% 2621-2631 (5252)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 80¢	$39.25	$22.53	+$1.07	62% 4316-2591 (6907)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 81.2¢	$15.09	$18.58	+$3.49	67% 3669-1840 (5509)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$18	$18.5	+$0.5	50% 893-886 (1779)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$32.5	$14.08	-$18.42	48% 2352-2543 (4895)
GH ghorrock<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$12.13	$12.66	+$0.53	52% 2216-2019 (4235)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 13¢	$11.08	$12.41	+$1.33	52% 5094-4784 (9878)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$10	$9.9	-$0.1	44% 2263-2898 (5161)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,356.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$24.07

Record

98%

4120-86 (4206)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,014.79

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$19.23

Record

48%

1102-1211 (2313)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$653.12

Value

$937.02

PnL

+$283.9

Record

50%

3424-3398 (6822)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$518.91

Value

$500

PnL

+$2.3

Record

54%

3871-3256 (7127)

Both legs:

Up$248.6549.7¢+$13.6

Down$250.350.1¢-$11.3

mo-money

Down

Invested

$665

Value

$500

PnL

-$165

Record

51%

1543-1462 (3005)

bosona

Down

Invested

$698.12

Value

$471.33

PnL

-$67.57

Record

51%

4792-4578 (9370)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$424.13

Value

$446.81

PnL

+$22.68

Record

55%

4512-3652 (8164)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$458.39

Value

$431.18

PnL

-$23.85

Record

58%

5103-3764 (8867)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$372.49

Value

$392.79

PnL

+$20.3

Record

52%

938-859 (1797)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$410.51

Value

$255.04

PnL

+$32.92

Record

51%

2355-2225 (4580)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$132.78

Value

$255.03

PnL

+$122.25

Record

51%

2012-1937 (3949)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$209.29

Value

$159.31

PnL

+$2.32

Record

56%

364-289 (653)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$105.78

Value

$103.47

PnL

-$2.31

Record

49%

896-928 (1824)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$105.83

Value

$100.98

PnL

-$4.86

Record

43%

1894-2540 (4434)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$93.88

Value

$73.6

PnL

-$20.28

Record

52%

1551-1455 (3006)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$79.48

Value

$72.5

PnL

-$6.98

Record

52%

2858-2596 (5454)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$53.73

Value

$63.11

PnL

+$9.38

Record

60%

3969-2697 (6666)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$26.41

Value

$25.91

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

2621-2631 (5252)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$39.25

Value

$22.53

PnL

+$1.07

Record

62%

4316-2591 (6907)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$15.09

Value

$18.58

PnL

+$3.49

Record

67%

3669-1840 (5509)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$18.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

893-886 (1779)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$32.5

Value

$14.08

PnL

-$18.42

Record

48%

2352-2543 (4895)

ghorrock<$100

Down

Invested

$12.13

Value

$12.66

PnL

+$0.53

Record

52%

2216-2019 (4235)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$11.08

Value

$12.41

PnL

+$1.33

Record

52%

5094-4784 (9878)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

2263-2898 (5161)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 31 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.