Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Down 69%
4 arb excluded
$9.8K
$246.37
Smart Money Signal
18 of 26 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.3 | 70% 1728-737 (2465) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$15.46 | 98% 4120-86 (4206) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $817.67 | $818.49 | +$0.82 | 52% 1476-1351 (2827) |
AL almach | Downavg 85.1¢ | $679.55 | $739.32 | +$59.77 | 52% 1551-1455 (3006) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $570.01 | $676.42 | +$106.41 | 50% 3424-3398 (6822) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 72.7¢ | $464.31 | $573.21 | +$108.9 | 48% 1102-1211 (2313) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $510.16 | $500 | -$0.4 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.4¢ | $252.16 | $500 | +$249.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $248 | — | -$250.2 | |
HC HcrystallashARB<$100 | Downavg 73.9¢ | $500.15 | $488.85 | -$11.3 | 58% 5103-3764 (8867) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73.9¢ | $361.11 | $488.85 | +$127.74 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.2¢ | $139.04 | — | -$139.04 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 74.6¢ | $379.85 | $408 | +$28.15 | 55% 4512-3652 (8164) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $244.63 | $250 | +$5.37 | 51% 1543-1462 (3005) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67¢ | $167.5 | $250 | +$82.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.9¢ | $77.13 | — | -$77.13 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 77.3¢ | $415.06 | $250 | +$12.28 | 51% 2355-2225 (4580) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 88.9¢ | $160.58 | $175 | +$14.42 | 52% 938-859 (1797) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $72.6 | $80 | +$7.4 | 49% 896-928 (1824) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.5¢ | $59.6 | $80 | +$20.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.3¢ | $13 | — | -$13 | |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $48.45 | $75 | +$26.55 | 47% 2261-2512 (4773) |
BO bosona | Downavg 78¢ | $401.82 | $52.54 | +$81.24 | 51% 4792-4578 (9370) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Downavg 70.4¢ | $41.93 | $59.53 | +$17.6 | 56% 364-289 (653) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $26.75 | $35 | +$8.25 | 47% 2362-2616 (4978) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $34.24 | — | -$32.04 | 60% 3969-2697 (6666) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $13.99 | $19.44 | +$5.45 | 67% 3669-1840 (5509) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $15.5 | — | -$15.5 | 44% 2263-2898 (5161) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $23.39 | $10.3 | +$2.31 | 62% 4316-2591 (6907) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $7.35 | — | -$7.35 | 48% 2352-2543 (4895) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $8.15 | $11.16 | +$3.02 | 52% 5094-4784 (9878) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.3¢ | $8.5 | — | -$8.5 | 64% 1941-1099 (3040) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $4.02 | $6 | +$1.98 | 50% 2621-2631 (5252) |
BoneOhioInvested
$2,999.7
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.3
Record
70%
1728-737 (2465)
Invested
$1,530.54
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$15.46
Record
98%
4120-86 (4206)
Invested
$817.67
Value
$818.49
PnL
+$0.82
Record
52%
1476-1351 (2827)
Invested
$679.55
Value
$739.32
PnL
+$59.77
Record
52%
1551-1455 (3006)
Invested
$570.01
Value
$676.42
PnL
+$106.41
Record
50%
3424-3398 (6822)
Invested
$464.31
Value
$573.21
PnL
+$108.9
Record
48%
1102-1211 (2313)
Invested
$510.16
Value
$500
PnL
-$0.4
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
Both legs:
Invested
$500.15
Value
$488.85
PnL
-$11.3
Record
58%
5103-3764 (8867)
Both legs:
Invested
$379.85
Value
$408
PnL
+$28.15
Record
55%
4512-3652 (8164)
Invested
$244.63
Value
$250
PnL
+$5.37
Record
51%
1543-1462 (3005)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$415.06
Value
$250
PnL
+$12.28
Record
51%
2355-2225 (4580)
Invested
$160.58
Value
$175
PnL
+$14.42
Record
52%
938-859 (1797)
Invested
$72.6
Value
$80
PnL
+$7.4
Record
49%
896-928 (1824)
Both legs:
ohioism<$100Invested
$48.45
Value
$75
PnL
+$26.55
Record
47%
2261-2512 (4773)
Invested
$401.82
Value
$52.54
PnL
+$81.24
Record
51%
4792-4578 (9370)
Invested
$41.93
Value
$59.53
PnL
+$17.6
Record
56%
364-289 (653)
Invested
$26.75
Value
$35
PnL
+$8.25
Record
47%
2362-2616 (4978)
Invested
$34.24
Value
—
PnL
-$32.04
Record
60%
3969-2697 (6666)
Invested
$13.99
Value
$19.44
PnL
+$5.45
Record
67%
3669-1840 (5509)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$15.5
Value
—
PnL
-$15.5
Record
44%
2263-2898 (5161)
Invested
$23.39
Value
$10.3
PnL
+$2.31
Record
62%
4316-2591 (6907)
Invested
$7.35
Value
—
PnL
-$7.35
Record
48%
2352-2543 (4895)
Invested
$8.15
Value
$11.16
PnL
+$3.02
Record
52%
5094-4784 (9878)
Invested
$8.5
Value
—
PnL
-$8.5
Record
64%
1941-1099 (3040)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.98
Record
50%
2621-2631 (5252)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
0x50f7
Down — $818.49
almach
Down — $739.32
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $676.42
CrouchPredictions
Down — $573.21
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Down — $408
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded