Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

26 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Down (76%) · Down at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$603.22

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 99.5¢

+36% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 34 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,676

Combined PnL+$865.7

Up8 traders

Total Value$51.69

Total Shares792

Combined PnL-$262.47

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$23.49	51% 1998-1928 (3926)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 41.5¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$56.34	50% 3397-3361 (6758)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.3¢	$726.75	$1.1K	+$350.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.5¢	$767.07	$360.05	-$407.02
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 44.6¢	$757.86	$947.1	+$197.61	58% 5095-3753 (8848)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 85.5¢	$617	$718.01	+$101.01	44% 303-387 (690)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 58.8¢	$557.27	$592.2	+$35.33	48% 1094-1204 (2298)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$517.71	$491.37	+$3.15	54% 3849-3219 (7068)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$242.67	$281.75	+$38.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$245.27	$209.62	-$35
ST stepahead	Downavg 57.8¢	$368.18	$389.41	+$45.67	55% 4505-3644 (8149)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 88.3¢	$257.86	$244.78	-$13.08	52% 928-854 (1782)
AL almach	Downavg 79.5¢	$209.45	$241.27	+$31.81	52% 1539-1442 (2981)
NIULAI4	Downavg 86.4¢	$155.46	$179.1	+$23.64	29% 523-1297 (1820)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 44.1¢	$148.08	$178.39	+$30.31	49% 892-926 (1818)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.1¢	$87.79	$120.33	+$32.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 41¢	$60.29	$58.06	-$2.23
LI Little-big	Downavg 31.3¢	$54.6	$173.7	+$119.1	51% 1045-996 (2041)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 66.4¢	$186.45	$170.07	-$16.37	52% 5090-4775 (9865)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$155.43	$153.08	-$2.36	98% 4086-84 (4170)
MO mo-money	Downavg 65.4¢	$123.82	$151.19	+$27.37	51% 1530-1451 (2981)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$174.34	$136.35	+$23.91	51% 2336-2212 (4548)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$66.14	$83.85	+$20.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$53.7	$52.5	+$3.05
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 85¢	$114.25	$133.7	+$19.45	36% 77-134 (211)
BO bosona	Downavg 20¢	$113.69	$122.37	+$279.74	51% 4780-4566 (9346)
ohioism	Downavg 44.9¢	$72.63	$120.78	+$56.9	47% 2247-2492 (4739)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 67.6¢	$105.66	$88.96	-$13.73	67% 3650-1820 (5470)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$93.85	$71.6	-$12.25	56% 359-279 (638)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$47.33	$65.1	+$17.77	47% 2348-2603 (4951)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$33.16	$35.7	+$2.54	44% 2246-2882 (5128)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 83¢	$29.4	$35.24	+$5.84	27% 296-782 (1078)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$29.32	$26.62	-$2.7	65% 2580-1409 (3989)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$1,787.59

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$23.49

Record

51%

1998-1928 (3926)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$1,493.83

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$56.34

Record

50%

3397-3361 (6758)

Both legs:

Down$726.7554.3¢+$350.68

Up$767.0741.5¢-$407.02

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$757.86

Value

$947.1

PnL

+$197.61

Record

58%

5095-3753 (8848)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$617

Value

$718.01

PnL

+$101.01

Record

44%

303-387 (690)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$557.27

Value

$592.2

PnL

+$35.33

Record

48%

1094-1204 (2298)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$517.71

Value

$491.37

PnL

+$3.15

Record

54%

3849-3219 (7068)

Both legs:

Down$242.6749.5¢+$38.15

Up$245.2749.7¢-$35

stepahead

Down

Invested

$368.18

Value

$389.41

PnL

+$45.67

Record

55%

4505-3644 (8149)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$257.86

Value

$244.78

PnL

-$13.08

Record

52%

928-854 (1782)

almach

Down

Invested

$209.45

Value

$241.27

PnL

+$31.81

Record

52%

1539-1442 (2981)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$155.46

Value

$179.1

PnL

+$23.64

Record

29%

523-1297 (1820)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$148.08

Value

$178.39

PnL

+$30.31

Record

49%

892-926 (1818)

Both legs:

Down$87.7944.1¢+$32.54

Up$60.2941¢-$2.23

Little-big

Down

Invested

$54.6

Value

$173.7

PnL

+$119.1

Record

51%

1045-996 (2041)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$186.45

Value

$170.07

PnL

-$16.37

Record

52%

5090-4775 (9865)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$155.43

Value

$153.08

PnL

-$2.36

Record

98%

4086-84 (4170)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$123.82

Value

$151.19

PnL

+$27.37

Record

51%

1530-1451 (2981)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$174.34

Value

$136.35

PnL

+$23.91

Record

51%

2336-2212 (4548)

Both legs:

Down$66.1449.3¢+$20.86

Up$53.738.4¢+$3.05

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$114.25

Value

$133.7

PnL

+$19.45

Record

36%

77-134 (211)

bosona

Down

Invested

$113.69

Value

$122.37

PnL

+$279.74

Record

51%

4780-4566 (9346)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$72.63

Value

$120.78

PnL

+$56.9

Record

47%

2247-2492 (4739)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$105.66

Value

$88.96

PnL

-$13.73

Record

67%

3650-1820 (5470)

Alpharo28<$100

Down

Invested

$93.85

Value

$71.6

PnL

-$12.25

Record

56%

359-279 (638)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$47.33

Value

$65.1

PnL

+$17.77

Record

47%

2348-2603 (4951)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$33.16

Value

$35.7

PnL

+$2.54

Record

44%

2246-2882 (5128)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$29.4

Value

$35.24

PnL

+$5.84

Record

27%

296-782 (1078)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$29.32

Value

$26.62

PnL

-$2.7

Record

65%

2580-1409 (3989)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 34 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.