Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$134.24

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 20 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,899

Combined PnL+$84.14

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares597

Combined PnL-$218.38

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$19.25	98% 4086-84 (4170)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$512.97	$497.47	+$1.27	54% 3849-3219 (7068)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$249.33	$497.47	+$249.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$247.46	—	-$248.4
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 86.9¢	$571.42	$490.96	-$80.45	48% 1094-1204 (2298)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 94.2¢	$238.07	$243.82	+$5.75	52% 928-854 (1782)
AL almach	Downavg 66¢	$156.36	$229.94	+$73.58	52% 1539-1442 (2981)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70¢	$133.97	$173.78	+$39.82	50% 3397-3361 (6758)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Upavg 24.5¢	$259.41	—	-$162.03	58% 5095-3753 (8848)
ST stepahead	Downavg 79.8¢	$116.76	$128.72	+$11.96	55% 4505-3644 (8149)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 66¢	$52.8	$80	+$27.2	60% 3949-2687 (6636)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$70.64	$38.63	-$10.9	62% 4286-2574 (6860)
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100	Upavg 33.5¢	$42.25	—	-$42.25	56% 359-279 (638)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 86¢	$26.8	$20	-$6.8	51% 2336-2212 (4548)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$18.93	$18.95	+$0.02	52% 1470-1346 (2816)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 62¢	$6.7	$10.81	+$4.11	67% 3650-1820 (5470)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 67¢	$4.85	$5	+$0.15	47% 2247-2492 (4739)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$5.4	—	-$5.4	49% 892-926 (1818)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 91¢	$4.65	$5.11	+$0.46	65% 2580-1409 (3989)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$3.48	—	-$3.48	43% 1879-2519 (4398)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$2.45	—	-$2.45	44% 2246-2882 (5128)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$1.5	—	-$1.5	64% 1941-1097 (3038)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$1.27	—	-$1.27	52% 5090-4775 (9865)