Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 39%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Signal

12 of 31 top traders (39%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,066

Combined PnL+$444.85

Down19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,979

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Up — 39%Down — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 68.9¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$101.51	51% 3321-3240 (6561)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 46.8¢	$457.84	$732.32	+$288.88	52% 2296-2150 (4446)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$514.06	$492.68	-$1.28	54% 3731-3151 (6882)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$245.16	$492.68	+$248.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$250.5	—	-$249.88
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 39.2¢	$598.53	$350.99	-$247.55	47% 1068-1182 (2250)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.9¢	$298.08	$350.99	+$52.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.2¢	$300.45	—	-$300.45
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Downavg 34.5¢	$450.4	$319.88	-$130.52	58% 5063-3721 (8784)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.8¢	$194.34	$319.88	+$125.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.5¢	$256.06	—	-$256.06
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 33.1¢	$335.76	$324.07	-$11.69	55% 4474-3627 (8101)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.5¢	$153.84	$324.07	+$170.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.1¢	$181.92	—	-$181.92
SU suntori	Upavg 88¢	$280.37	$318.6	+$38.23	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 76¢	$308.81	$286	-$20.31	52% 903-831 (1734)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 84.8¢	$177	$208.67	+$31.67	43% 296-385 (681)
AA aaa221ARB<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$368.75	$158.64	-$122.4	59% 3865-2632 (6497)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.5¢	$115.05	$158.64	+$48.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.4¢	$148.2	—	-$171.17
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$128.93	$130.23	+$1.3	98% 3966-84 (4050)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 28.8¢	$245.78	—	-$245.78	51% 1492-1421 (2913)
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 50¢	$107.5	—	-$107.5	51% 1013-972 (1985)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 27.8¢	$221.68	—	-$221.68	51% 1487-1429 (2916)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 80.4¢	$87.65	$67	-$4.28	63% 4195-2511 (6706)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 98¢	$75.81	$57	-$18.81	52% 2790-2541 (5331)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$55.48	—	-$55.48	47% 2283-2545 (4828)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 25¢	$32.6	—	-$32.6	47% 2185-2435 (4620)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 89.8¢	$45.8	$38	-$7.11	67% 3569-1770 (5339)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 34.9¢	$37.93	—	-$37.93	48% 2261-2474 (4735)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 46.8¢	$19.29	—	-$19.29	50% 852-864 (1716)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Downavg 47.6¢	$17.35	—	-$17.35	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 42¢	$12.6	—	-$12.6	52% 5063-4757 (9820)
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$33.05	—	-$26.85	57% 334-257 (591)
RL RLWG	Upavg 48¢	$163.32	$15	+$224.05	64% 1932-1086 (3018)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$2,298.79

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$101.51

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$457.84

Value

$732.32

PnL

+$288.88

Record

52%

2296-2150 (4446)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$514.06

Value

$492.68

PnL

-$1.28

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

Both legs:

Up$245.1649.8¢+$248.6

Down$250.548.9¢-$249.88

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$598.53

Value

$350.99

PnL

-$247.55

Record

47%

1068-1182 (2250)

Both legs:

Up$298.0884.9¢+$52.91

Down$300.4539.2¢-$300.45

HcrystallashARB<$100

Down

Invested

$450.4

Value

$319.88

PnL

-$130.52

Record

58%

5063-3721 (8784)

Both legs:

Up$194.3460.8¢+$125.54

Down$256.0634.5¢-$256.06

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$335.76

Value

$324.07

PnL

-$11.69

Record

55%

4474-3627 (8101)

Both legs:

Up$153.8447.5¢+$170.23

Down$181.9233.1¢-$181.92

suntori

Invested

$280.37

Value

$318.6

PnL

+$38.23

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$308.81

Value

$286

PnL

-$20.31

Record

52%

903-831 (1734)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$177

Value

$208.67

PnL

+$31.67

Record

43%

296-385 (681)

aaa221ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$368.75

Value

$158.64

PnL

-$122.4

Record

59%

3865-2632 (6497)

Both legs:

Up$115.0572.5¢+$48.77

Down$148.259.4¢-$171.17

hoodquant

Invested

$128.93

Value

$130.23

PnL

+$1.3

Record

98%

3966-84 (4050)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$245.78

Value

—

PnL

-$245.78

Record

51%

1492-1421 (2913)

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$107.5

Value

—

PnL

-$107.5

Record

51%

1013-972 (1985)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$221.68

Value

—

PnL

-$221.68

Record

51%

1487-1429 (2916)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$87.65

Value

$67

PnL

-$4.28

Record

63%

4195-2511 (6706)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$75.81

Value

$57

PnL

-$18.81

Record

52%

2790-2541 (5331)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$55.48

Value

—

PnL

-$55.48

Record

47%

2283-2545 (4828)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.6

Value

—

PnL

-$32.6

Record

47%

2185-2435 (4620)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$45.8

Value

$38

PnL

-$7.11

Record

67%

3569-1770 (5339)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$37.93

Value

—

PnL

-$37.93

Record

48%

2261-2474 (4735)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.29

Value

—

PnL

-$19.29

Record

50%

852-864 (1716)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.35

Value

—

PnL

-$17.35

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.6

Value

—

PnL

-$12.6

Record

52%

5063-4757 (9820)

Alpharo28CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.05

Value

—

PnL

-$26.85

Record

57%

334-257 (591)

RLWG

Invested

$163.32

Value

$15

PnL

+$224.05

Record

64%

1932-1086 (3018)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 31 top traders (39%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x75b59bec...298186

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794707100

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $2.2K

-$101.51

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $732.32

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Hcrystallash

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

suntori

Up — $318.6

+$38.23

EZTRADENL2

Up — $286

-$20.31

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Up — $208.67

aaa221

Arbitrage — excluded