Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

21 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 100¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

-$116.82

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 99.5¢

+58% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 33 top traders (64%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares10,517

Combined PnL+$237.42

Up12 traders

Total Value$277.84

Total Shares1,403

Combined PnL-$354.24

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 61.4¢	$5.9K	$4.9K	-$991.74	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 70.5¢	$923.49	$970.86	+$47.37	47% 1037-1165 (2202)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 56.7¢	$903.97	$890.85	-$13.12	58% 5031-3699 (8730)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 18.6¢	$759.04	$772.22	+$1.4K	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
ST stepahead	Downavg 67.7¢	$647.09	$649.2	+$2.11	55% 4442-3611 (8053)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710ARB<$100	Downavg 15.7¢	$446.73	$647.5	+$759.69	42% 1736-2377 (4113)
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.5¢	$136.17	$413.48	+$669.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.7¢	$144.01	$234.02	+$90.01
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 81.2¢	$576	$518.46	-$48.49	43% 294-383 (677)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$568.08	$502.54	+$11.14	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$250.74	$270.04	+$22.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$245.67	$232.5	-$11.1
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 28.1¢	$486.79	$435.91	-$50.88	51% 4704-4511 (9215)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74¢	$225.29	$240.59	+$15.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.1¢	$261.5	$195.33	-$66.17
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$373.36	$375.24	+$1.89	98% 3857-81 (3938)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$681.73	$364.46	-$145.56	51% 1455-1389 (2844)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.5¢	$207.6	$275.8	+$21.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.1¢	$84.78	$88.67	-$167.43
MO mo-money	Downavg 66.6¢	$702.66	$290.14	-$272.1	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$337.22	$266.46	+$1.06	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$110.36	$211.9	+$106.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.7¢	$155.49	$54.56	-$105.29
NIULAI4	Downavg 89.5¢	$196.85	$218.9	+$22.05	28% 495-1271 (1766)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 49.5¢	$172.08	$214.59	+$42.51	49% 883-907 (1790)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$100.43	$163.42	+$62.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.3¢	$71.65	$51.18	-$20.47
LI Little-big	Downavg 53.7¢	$107.58	$199.17	+$91.59	51% 990-949 (1939)
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 86.6¢	$170.75	$190.2	+$19.45	36% 75-133 (208)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 87.3¢	$123.02	$108.77	-$14.25	67% 3477-1728 (5205)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 65.4¢	$90.32	$93.93	+$3.62	52% 874-813 (1687)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$108.19	$93.18	-$15.01	52% 5039-4741 (9780)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$48.01	$69.59	+$21.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$60.18	$23.59	-$36.58
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 46.3¢	$89.42	$61.1	-$28.33	48% 2195-2413 (4608)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$85.9	$56.43	-$29.47	52% 2738-2492 (5230)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.3¢	$39.76	$34	-$5.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.9¢	$46.14	$22.43	-$23.72
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 82.6¢	$48.02	$56.09	+$8.07	26% 280-778 (1058)
ohioismCTR	Upavg 38.4¢	$102.47	$56.07	-$46.41	47% 2139-2368 (4507)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 18.7¢	$49.75	$55.8	+$6.05	71% 1635-682 (2317)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$5,889.88

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$991.74

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$923.49

Value

$970.86

PnL

+$47.37

Record

47%

1037-1165 (2202)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$903.97

Value

$890.85

PnL

-$13.12

Record

58%

5031-3699 (8730)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$759.04

Value

$772.22

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$647.09

Value

$649.2

PnL

+$2.11

Record

55%

4442-3611 (8053)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$446.73

Value

$647.5

PnL

+$759.69

Record

42%

1736-2377 (4113)

Both legs:

Up$136.1724.5¢+$669.68

Down$144.0115.7¢+$90.01

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$576

Value

$518.46

PnL

-$48.49

Record

43%

294-383 (677)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$568.08

Value

$502.54

PnL

+$11.14

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Down$250.7449.7¢+$22.24

Up$245.6749.1¢-$11.1

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$486.79

Value

$435.91

PnL

-$50.88

Record

51%

4704-4511 (9215)

Both legs:

Down$225.2974¢+$15.29

Up$261.528.1¢-$66.17

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$373.36

Value

$375.24

PnL

+$1.89

Record

98%

3857-81 (3938)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$681.73

Value

$364.46

PnL

-$145.56

Record

51%

1455-1389 (2844)

Both legs:

Down$207.659.5¢+$21.87

Up$84.7820.1¢-$167.43

mo-money

Down

Invested

$702.66

Value

$290.14

PnL

-$272.1

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$337.22

Value

$266.46

PnL

+$1.06

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

Both legs:

Down$110.3642.4¢+$106.35

Up$155.4952.7¢-$105.29

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$196.85

Value

$218.9

PnL

+$22.05

Record

28%

495-1271 (1766)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$172.08

Value

$214.59

PnL

+$42.51

Record

49%

883-907 (1790)

Both legs:

Down$100.4349.5¢+$62.99

Up$71.6527.3¢-$20.47

Little-big

Down

Invested

$107.58

Value

$199.17

PnL

+$91.59

Record

51%

990-949 (1939)

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$170.75

Value

$190.2

PnL

+$19.45

Record

36%

75-133 (208)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$123.02

Value

$108.77

PnL

-$14.25

Record

67%

3477-1728 (5205)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$90.32

Value

$93.93

PnL

+$3.62

Record

52%

874-813 (1687)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$108.19

Value

$93.18

PnL

-$15.01

Record

52%

5039-4741 (9780)

Both legs:

Down$48.0155.5¢+$21.57

Up$60.1849.7¢-$36.58

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$89.42

Value

$61.1

PnL

-$28.33

Record

48%

2195-2413 (4608)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$85.9

Value

$56.43

PnL

-$29.47

Record

52%

2738-2492 (5230)

Both legs:

Up$39.7678.3¢-$5.76

Down$46.1466.9¢-$23.72

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$48.02

Value

$56.09

PnL

+$8.07

Record

26%

280-778 (1058)

ohioismCTR

Invested

$102.47

Value

$56.07

PnL

-$46.41

Record

47%

2139-2368 (4507)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$49.75

Value

$55.8

PnL

+$6.05

Record

71%

1635-682 (2317)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 33 top traders (64%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.