Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Down 43%
2 arb excluded
$3.7K
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 30 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | +$521.66 | 51% 3214-3142 (6356) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 4.9¢ | $81.94 | — | -$81.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64¢ | $688.65 | $1.1K | +$603.6 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$11.41 | 98% 3813-79 (3892) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.6¢ | $503.1 | — | -$496.2 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 30.1¢ | $883.13 | — | -$883.13 | 50% 507-506 (1013) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 65.6¢ | $333.36 | $254.45 | -$7.93 | 52% 2228-2078 (4306) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 74.7¢ | $340.63 | $455.72 | +$115.09 | 47% 1027-1156 (2183) |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $164.65 | $117.67 | +$2.07 | 52% 867-805 (1672) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 2.7¢ | $9.62 | — | -$9.62 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 92.5¢ | $108.8 | $117.67 | +$11.69 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 77.4¢ | $230.91 | $228.22 | -$2.69 | 55% 4430-3604 (8034) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $112.08 | $139.43 | +$31.27 | 57% 298-228 (526) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $115.39 | $100 | -$15.39 | 49% 878-905 (1783) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 54.6¢ | $40.5 | $74.18 | +$33.68 | 47% 180-202 (382) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.9¢ | $53.61 | — | -$12.29 | 58% 5021-3684 (8705) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 89.3¢ | $63.83 | $63.65 | -$0.18 | 67% 3450-1707 (5157) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 91.3¢ | $49.01 | $47.12 | -$1.89 | 50% 4458-4532 (8990) |
RL RLWGCTR | Upavg 20.1¢ | $422.39 | — | -$422.39 | 64% 1920-1068 (2988) |
 gabigol<$100 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $33.94 | $37.49 | +$3.55 | 49% 265-278 (543) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $27.32 | $27.41 | +$0.09 | 59% 3751-2555 (6306) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $33.32 | $27 | -$0.52 | 63% 4066-2434 (6500) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 22.1¢ | $143.5 | — | -$143.5 | 51% 1429-1393 (2822) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 24.1¢ | $136.6 | — | -$136.6 | 51% 4683-4502 (9185) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 70.5¢ | $7.05 | $10 | +$2.95 | 48% 1276-1362 (2638) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 18.2¢ | $784.13 | — | -$142.55 | 51% 1438-1373 (2811) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.2¢ | $1.33 | — | -$1.33 | 50% 2442-2474 (4916) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 54.7¢ | $3.28 | — | -$3.28 | 42% 1711-2331 (4042) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $3.5 | — | -$3.5 | 44% 2109-2719 (4828) |
Invested
$1,174.56
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$521.66
Record
51%
3214-3142 (6356)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,038.61
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.41
Record
98%
3813-79 (3892)
Invested
$503.1
Value
—
PnL
-$496.2
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Invested
$883.13
Value
—
PnL
-$883.13
Record
50%
507-506 (1013)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$333.36
Value
$254.45
PnL
-$7.93
Record
52%
2228-2078 (4306)
Invested
$340.63
Value
$455.72
PnL
+$115.09
Record
47%
1027-1156 (2183)
Invested
$164.65
Value
$117.67
PnL
+$2.07
Record
52%
867-805 (1672)
Both legs:
Invested
$230.91
Value
$228.22
PnL
-$2.69
Record
55%
4430-3604 (8034)
Invested
$112.08
Value
$139.43
PnL
+$31.27
Record
57%
298-228 (526)
Invested
$115.39
Value
$100
PnL
-$15.39
Record
49%
878-905 (1783)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$40.5
Value
$74.18
PnL
+$33.68
Record
47%
180-202 (382)
Invested
$53.61
Value
—
PnL
-$12.29
Record
58%
5021-3684 (8705)
Invested
$63.83
Value
$63.65
PnL
-$0.18
Record
67%
3450-1707 (5157)
Invested
$49.01
Value
$47.12
PnL
-$1.89
Record
50%
4458-4532 (8990)
Invested
$422.39
Value
—
PnL
-$422.39
Record
64%
1920-1068 (2988)
gabigol<$100Invested
$33.94
Value
$37.49
PnL
+$3.55
Record
49%
265-278 (543)
Invested
$27.32
Value
$27.41
PnL
+$0.09
Record
59%
3751-2555 (6306)
Invested
$33.32
Value
$27
PnL
-$0.52
Record
63%
4066-2434 (6500)
Invested
$143.5
Value
—
PnL
-$143.5
Record
51%
1429-1393 (2822)
Invested
$136.6
Value
—
PnL
-$136.6
Record
51%
4683-4502 (9185)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.95
Record
48%
1276-1362 (2638)
Invested
$784.13
Value
—
PnL
-$142.55
Record
51%
1438-1373 (2811)
Invested
$1.33
Value
—
PnL
-$1.33
Record
50%
2442-2474 (4916)
Invested
$3.28
Value
—
PnL
-$3.28
Record
42%
1711-2331 (4042)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
—
PnL
-$3.5
Record
44%
2109-2719 (4828)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $254.45
CrouchPredictions
Down — $455.72
EZTRADENL2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Down — $228.22
Alpharo28
Down — $139.43
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $100