Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up46¢Down54¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$4.34

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 54.5¢

-4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 15 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up46%

Down55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$539.97

Total Shares583

Combined PnL-$0.06

Down10 traders

Total Value$813.89

Total Shares1,319

Combined PnL+$4.4

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 57.4¢	$456.28	$465.28	+$9	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 42.6¢	$342.38	$373.22	+$30.84	50% 502-503 (1005)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.6¢	$250.42	$285.22	+$34.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.8¢	$91.97	$88	-$3.97
AL almach	Downavg 56.3¢	$251.23	$245.11	-$6.13	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$106.52	$91.07	-$4.63	47% 1019-1148 (2167)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.3¢	$72.22	$68.55	-$3.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$23.22	$22.52	-$0.7
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$79.88	$73.89	+$10.67	58% 5007-3677 (8684)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$42	$51.48	+$12.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$24.04	$22.41	-$1.63
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$58.05	$60.67	+$2.61	55% 4420-3598 (8018)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$30.94	$30.8	-$0.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.8¢	$27.11	$29.86	+$2.75
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 57¢	$34.2	$35.1	+$0.9	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$21.49	$22.14	+$0.64	57% 289-221 (510)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$14.35	$14.52	+$0.17	47% 2188-2425 (4613)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 57¢	$11.4	$11.7	+$0.3	49% 878-901 (1779)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$10.8	$10.7	-$0.1	63% 4035-2416 (6451)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 59¢	$11.47	$10.65	-$0.82	67% 3426-1692 (5118)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 56¢	$9.41	$9.33	-$0.08	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$8.64	$8.56	-$0.08	38% 650-1068 (1718)
GH ghorrock<$100	Downavg 47.8¢	$7.11	$7.36	+$0.25	53% 1854-1648 (3502)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$6.24	$6.18	-$0.06	42% 1702-2303 (4005)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 47¢	$4.09	$4.31	+$0.22	50% 817-809 (1626)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.93	+$0.13	48% 1266-1353 (2619)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$456.28

Value

$465.28

PnL

+$9

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$342.38

Value

$373.22

PnL

+$30.84

Record

50%

502-503 (1005)

Both legs:

Up$250.4242.6¢+$34.81

Down$91.9753.8¢-$3.97

almach

Down

Invested

$251.23

Value

$245.11

PnL

-$6.13

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$106.52

Value

$91.07

PnL

-$4.63

Record

47%

1019-1148 (2167)

Both legs:

Down$72.2254.3¢-$3.93

Up$23.2250¢-$0.7

HcrystallashARB<$100

Down

Invested

$79.88

Value

$73.89

PnL

+$10.67

Record

58%

5007-3677 (8684)

Both legs:

Down$4247.7¢+$12.3

Up$24.0444.5¢-$1.63

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$58.05

Value

$60.67

PnL

+$2.61

Record

55%

4420-3598 (8018)

Both legs:

Up$30.9448.7¢-$0.14

Down$27.1146.8¢+$2.75

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$34.2

Value

$35.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

Alpharo28<$100

Down

Invested

$21.49

Value

$22.14

PnL

+$0.64

Record

57%

289-221 (510)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$14.35

Value

$14.52

PnL

+$0.17

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$11.4

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

878-901 (1779)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

63%

4035-2416 (6451)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$11.47

Value

$10.65

PnL

-$0.82

Record

67%

3426-1692 (5118)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$9.41

Value

$9.33

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$8.64

Value

$8.56

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

650-1068 (1718)

ghorrock<$100

Down

Invested

$7.11

Value

$7.36

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.18

PnL

-$0.06

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$4.09

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

817-809 (1626)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

1266-1353 (2619)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 15 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.