Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Down (38%) · Down at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up32¢Down68¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$30.07

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 68.5¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up32%

Down69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,916

Combined PnL+$109.9

Up10 traders

Total Value$676.12

Total Shares1,030

Combined PnL-$79.83

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 64.2¢	$925.79	$977.22	+$54.19	51% 3173-3101 (6274)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 39.1¢	$478.38	$374.65	-$103.73	50% 499-500 (999)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.1¢	$437.89	$296.43	-$141.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.1¢	$40.49	$78.21	+$37.72
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 59.5¢	$261.9	$282.94	+$33.64	58% 4999-3667 (8666)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 67.8¢	$147.95	$160.28	+$12.33	47% 1012-1142 (2154)
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 57.5¢	$108.86	$50.19	-$58.68	51% 972-925 (1897)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 56.7¢	$37.3	$48.08	+$10.78	50% 4423-4495 (8918)
ST stepaheadCTR<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$34.59	$30.49	-$4.1	55% 4411-3594 (8005)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$28.8	$27.3	-$1.5	47% 2079-2312 (4391)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 31.8¢	$25.11	$23.31	-$1.8	51% 1414-1359 (2773)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$14.38	$14.11	-$0.27	50% 1405-1380 (2785)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 25.5¢	$18	$11.01	-$0.46	63% 4009-2399 (6408)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$20.78	$10.94	-$9.84	38% 641-1057 (1698)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 67.6¢	$11.54	$10.39	-$1.15	67% 3403-1682 (5085)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$5.92	$5.86	-$0.06	48% 1258-1344 (2602)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 72¢	$5.04	$5.15	+$0.1	48% 2136-2349 (4485)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$6.04	$2.92	-$3.13	42% 1686-2284 (3970)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$925.79

Value

$977.22

PnL

+$54.19

Record

51%

3173-3101 (6274)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$478.38

Value

$374.65

PnL

-$103.73

Record

50%

499-500 (999)

Both legs:

Up$437.8939.1¢-$141.46

Down$40.4938.1¢+$37.72

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$261.9

Value

$282.94

PnL

+$33.64

Record

58%

4999-3667 (8666)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$147.95

Value

$160.28

PnL

+$12.33

Record

47%

1012-1142 (2154)

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$108.86

Value

$50.19

PnL

-$58.68

Record

51%

972-925 (1897)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$37.3

Value

$48.08

PnL

+$10.78

Record

50%

4423-4495 (8918)

stepaheadCTR<$100

Invested

$34.59

Value

$30.49

PnL

-$4.1

Record

55%

4411-3594 (8005)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$27.3

PnL

-$1.5

Record

47%

2079-2312 (4391)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$25.11

Value

$23.31

PnL

-$1.8

Record

51%

1414-1359 (2773)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$14.38

Value

$14.11

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

1405-1380 (2785)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$11.01

PnL

-$0.46

Record

63%

4009-2399 (6408)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$20.78

Value

$10.94

PnL

-$9.84

Record

38%

641-1057 (1698)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$11.54

Value

$10.39

PnL

-$1.15

Record

67%

3403-1682 (5085)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$5.86

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

1258-1344 (2602)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2136-2349 (4485)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$6.04

Value

$2.92

PnL

-$3.13

Record

42%

1686-2284 (3970)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.