Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Down 65%
1 arb excluded
$13.3K
-$909.76
Smart Money Signal
24 of 37 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $6.0K | $6.0K | +$6.01 | 52% 1374-1272 (2646) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 90.1¢ | $2.2K | $2.5K | +$243.6 | 50% 1880-1856 (3736) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 89.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$48 | 47% 991-1132 (2123) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $756.96 | $764.99 | +$8.03 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $577.36 | $583.19 | +$5.83 | 71% 1579-644 (2223) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $504 | $490.91 | -$7.14 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245.45 | $490.91 | +$246.86 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $254 | — | -$254 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 63.3¢ | $321.77 | $436.44 | +$114.67 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
RL RLWGCTR | Upavg 17¢ | $723.15 | — | -$723.15 | 64% 1914-1059 (2973) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 75.4¢ | $320.62 | $262 | -$58.62 | 58% 4982-3643 (8625) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 94.1¢ | $215.52 | $221.85 | +$6.32 | 51% 829-786 (1615) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 32¢ | $234.32 | — | -$234.32 | 55% 4389-3585 (7974) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 75.3¢ | $266.35 | $136.66 | +$1.87 | 52% 2174-2029 (4203) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 54.6¢ | $223.42 | $130.88 | +$113.88 | 50% 488-495 (983) |
 gabigol | Downavg 94.9¢ | $118.5 | $121.19 | +$2.69 | 48% 255-274 (529) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 99.3¢ | $86.98 | $82.43 | -$4.55 | 51% 1383-1347 (2730) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 87.8¢ | $95.16 | $80 | -$15.16 | 49% 870-892 (1762) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $68.16 | $70.76 | +$3.37 | 50% 4383-4460 (8843) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 93.8¢ | $70.47 | $70.53 | +$0.06 | 67% 3341-1667 (5008) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 99.9¢ | $124.63 | $63.96 | -$0.81 | 50% 1373-1367 (2740) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $48 | $51.61 | +$3.61 | 42% 283-383 (666) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $30.15 | $35 | +$4.85 | 47% 2042-2277 (4319) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Upavg 46.1¢ | $34.84 | — | -$34.84 | 53% 1809-1607 (3416) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 94.2¢ | $91.09 | $36.06 | +$6.57 | 62% 3938-2372 (6310) |
AL Alpharo28CTR | Upavg 46¢ | $120.28 | — | -$86.78 | 56% 261-207 (468) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 53.3¢ | $25.78 | $40 | +$14.22 | 50% 794-790 (1584) |
Invested
$6,002
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$6.01
Record
52%
1374-1272 (2646)
Invested
$2,217.4
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$243.6
Record
50%
1880-1856 (3736)
Invested
$1,100.07
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$48
Record
47%
991-1132 (2123)
Invested
$756.96
Value
$764.99
PnL
+$8.03
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
BoneOhioInvested
$577.36
Value
$583.19
PnL
+$5.83
Record
71%
1579-644 (2223)
Invested
$504
Value
$490.91
PnL
-$7.14
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Both legs:
Invested
$321.77
Value
$436.44
PnL
+$114.67
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
Invested
$723.15
Value
—
PnL
-$723.15
Record
64%
1914-1059 (2973)
Invested
$320.62
Value
$262
PnL
-$58.62
Record
58%
4982-3643 (8625)
Invested
$215.52
Value
$221.85
PnL
+$6.32
Record
51%
829-786 (1615)
Invested
$234.32
Value
—
PnL
-$234.32
Record
55%
4389-3585 (7974)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$266.35
Value
$136.66
PnL
+$1.87
Record
52%
2174-2029 (4203)
Invested
$223.42
Value
$130.88
PnL
+$113.88
Record
50%
488-495 (983)
gabigolInvested
$118.5
Value
$121.19
PnL
+$2.69
Record
48%
255-274 (529)
Invested
$86.98
Value
$82.43
PnL
-$4.55
Record
51%
1383-1347 (2730)
Invested
$95.16
Value
$80
PnL
-$15.16
Record
49%
870-892 (1762)
Invested
$68.16
Value
$70.76
PnL
+$3.37
Record
50%
4383-4460 (8843)
Invested
$70.47
Value
$70.53
PnL
+$0.06
Record
67%
3341-1667 (5008)
Invested
$124.63
Value
$63.96
PnL
-$0.81
Record
50%
1373-1367 (2740)
Invested
$48
Value
$51.61
PnL
+$3.61
Record
42%
283-383 (666)
ohioism<$100Invested
$30.15
Value
$35
PnL
+$4.85
Record
47%
2042-2277 (4319)
Invested
$34.84
Value
—
PnL
-$34.84
Record
53%
1809-1607 (3416)
Invested
$91.09
Value
$36.06
PnL
+$6.57
Record
62%
3938-2372 (6310)
Invested
$120.28
Value
—
PnL
-$86.78
Record
56%
261-207 (468)
Invested
$25.78
Value
$40
PnL
+$14.22
Record
50%
794-790 (1584)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $6.0K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.5K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.1K
hoodquant
Down — $764.99
BoneOhio
Down — $583.19
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $436.44
RLWG
CTRUp — $0
Hcrystallash
Down — $262
EZTRADENL2
Down — $221.85