Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

26 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Up (81%) · Up at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 81%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$575.57

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

26 of 32 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up26 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares8,381

Combined PnL+$717.69

Down6 traders

Total Value$496.88

Total Shares1,203

Combined PnL-$142.12

Up — 81%Down — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 91¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$38.99	50% 3063-3014 (6077)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 96.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$60.64	42% 1619-2223 (3842)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.6¢	$521.13	$490.68	-$2.23	54% 3405-2902 (6307)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 53.4¢	$251.59	$438.55	+$189.27	46% 977-1126 (2103)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 41¢	$886.5	$435.78	-$450.72	49% 480-493 (973)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.4¢	$277.06	$339.12	+$62.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 41¢	$609.44	$96.66	-$512.78
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 96¢	$369.3	$376.44	+$7.14	51% 822-785 (1607)
MO mo-money	Upavg 98¢	$363.6	$360.5	-$3.1	50% 1358-1358 (2716)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 72¢	$392.47	$297.07	-$12.58	58% 4971-3632 (8603)
gabigol	Upavg 95.4¢	$267.42	$273.4	+$5.98	48% 251-273 (524)
BO bosona	Upavg 65.4¢	$469.72	$270.54	+$228.1	51% 4610-4467 (9077)
AL almach	Upavg 97.4¢	$479.27	$180	+$96.2	51% 1368-1337 (2705)
AA aaa221	Upavg 89.5¢	$125.29	$116.05	-$9.24	59% 3605-2478 (6083)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 93.5¢	$98	$104.72	+$6.72	42% 280-382 (662)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 83.7¢	$321.89	$100.37	+$3.58	52% 2159-2014 (4173)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 84¢	$87.96	$91.87	+$3.91	67% 3307-1655 (4962)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 82.5¢	$84.64	$91.68	+$7.04	49% 865-890 (1755)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 93.4¢	$82.57	$85.35	+$2.78	52% 2593-2411 (5004)
ST stepahead<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$64.24	$81.1	+$16.86	55% 4374-3580 (7954)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 47¢	$28.2	$59.97	+$31.77	47% 2067-2299 (4366)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 45.8¢	$23.45	$51.21	+$27.76	47% 2019-2253 (4272)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Upavg 67.8¢	$43.85	$48.47	+$4.61	56% 249-199 (448)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 94.6¢	$35.46	$34.36	-$1.1	50% 2339-2380 (4719)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 47¢	$14.67	$16.2	+$1.53	51% 4968-4686 (9654)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 45¢	$13.5	$14.25	+$0.75	43% 2013-2620 (4633)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 82.5¢	$9.18	$11.12	+$1.94	64% 2336-1304 (3640)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$3,390.31

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$38.99

Record

50%

3063-3014 (6077)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$1,750.44

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$60.64

Record

42%

1619-2223 (3842)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$521.13

Value

$490.68

PnL

-$2.23

Record

54%

3405-2902 (6307)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$251.59

Value

$438.55

PnL

+$189.27

Record

46%

977-1126 (2103)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$886.5

Value

$435.78

PnL

-$450.72

Record

49%

480-493 (973)

Both legs:

Up$277.0676.4¢+$62.06

Down$609.4441¢-$512.78

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$369.3

Value

$376.44

PnL

+$7.14

Record

51%

822-785 (1607)

mo-money

Invested

$363.6

Value

$360.5

PnL

-$3.1

Record

50%

1358-1358 (2716)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$392.47

Value

$297.07

PnL

-$12.58

Record

58%

4971-3632 (8603)

gabigol

Invested

$267.42

Value

$273.4

PnL

+$5.98

Record

48%

251-273 (524)

bosona

Invested

$469.72

Value

$270.54

PnL

+$228.1

Record

51%

4610-4467 (9077)

almach

Invested

$479.27

Value

$180

PnL

+$96.2

Record

51%

1368-1337 (2705)

aaa221

Invested

$125.29

Value

$116.05

PnL

-$9.24

Record

59%

3605-2478 (6083)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$98

Value

$104.72

PnL

+$6.72

Record

42%

280-382 (662)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$321.89

Value

$100.37

PnL

+$3.58

Record

52%

2159-2014 (4173)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$87.96

Value

$91.87

PnL

+$3.91

Record

67%

3307-1655 (4962)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$84.64

Value

$91.68

PnL

+$7.04

Record

49%

865-890 (1755)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$82.57

Value

$85.35

PnL

+$2.78

Record

52%

2593-2411 (5004)

stepahead<$100

Invested

$64.24

Value

$81.1

PnL

+$16.86

Record

55%

4374-3580 (7954)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$59.97

PnL

+$31.77

Record

47%

2067-2299 (4366)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$23.45

Value

$51.21

PnL

+$27.76

Record

47%

2019-2253 (4272)

Alpharo28<$100

Invested

$43.85

Value

$48.47

PnL

+$4.61

Record

56%

249-199 (448)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$35.46

Value

$34.36

PnL

-$1.1

Record

50%

2339-2380 (4719)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$14.67

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$1.53

Record

51%

4968-4686 (9654)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$13.5

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

43%

2013-2620 (4633)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$9.18

Value

$11.12

PnL

+$1.94

Record

64%

2336-1304 (3640)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

26 of 32 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.