Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Up 86%
1 arb excluded
$8.9K
-$334.02
Smart Money Signal
32 of 37 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 97.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$42.85 | 42% 1619-2223 (3842) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 68.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$63.2 | 50% 3063-3014 (6077) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 76.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$54.22 | 46% 977-1126 (2103) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.8¢ | $521.72 | — | -$498.7 | 54% 3405-2902 (6307) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 89.9¢ | $331.44 | $358.13 | +$26.69 | 51% 822-785 (1607) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $487.32 | $815.98 | +$328.65 | 49% 480-493 (973) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $411.9 | $815.98 | +$404.07 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.1¢ | $75.42 | — | -$75.42 | |
 gabigol | Upavg 93.6¢ | $342.12 | $365.43 | +$23.31 | 48% 251-273 (524) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 61¢ | $384.33 | $339.99 | +$19.88 | 58% 4971-3632 (8603) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 67.8¢ | $316.74 | $309.33 | -$7.41 | 52% 2159-2014 (4173) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 65.6¢ | $300.24 | $300.13 | -$0.1 | 55% 4374-3580 (7954) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 96.4¢ | $285.26 | $296 | +$10.74 | 52% 2593-2411 (5004) |
BO bosona | Upavg 95.6¢ | $678.6 | $213.74 | +$129.6 | 51% 4610-4467 (9077) |
AL almach | Upavg 97.5¢ | $801 | $196.81 | +$29.1 | 51% 1368-1337 (2705) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $159.17 | $176.67 | +$17.5 | 49% 865-890 (1755) |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 24.2¢ | $386.8 | — | -$386.8 | 65% 1911-1050 (2961) |
AL Alpharo28 | Upavg 71.3¢ | $169.57 | $126.66 | -$28.31 | 56% 249-199 (448) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 97.9¢ | $809.03 | $119.94 | +$5.16 | 50% 1358-1358 (2716) |
AA aaa221 | Upavg 75.7¢ | $124.47 | $116.42 | +$23.52 | 59% 3605-2478 (6083) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100 | Upavg 95.5¢ | $77.85 | $81.55 | +$3.7 | 42% 280-382 (662) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 80.6¢ | $70.3 | $65 | -$5.3 | 50% 4364-4429 (8793) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 91.3¢ | $61.27 | $62.26 | +$1.11 | 67% 3307-1655 (4962) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100 | Upavg 75.7¢ | $36.48 | $48.16 | +$11.68 | 57% 128-98 (226) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 73.1¢ | $37.39 | $51.14 | +$13.76 | 37% 611-1024 (1635) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $41.53 | — | -$41.53 | 52% 1734-1576 (3310) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 47.9¢ | $33.55 | $70 | +$36.45 | 47% 2103-2356 (4459) |
Invested
$1,781.15
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$42.85
Record
42%
1619-2223 (3842)
Invested
$1,620.35
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$63.2
Record
50%
3063-3014 (6077)
Invested
$1,189.33
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$54.22
Record
46%
977-1126 (2103)
Invested
$521.72
Value
—
PnL
-$498.7
Record
54%
3405-2902 (6307)
Invested
$331.44
Value
$358.13
PnL
+$26.69
Record
51%
822-785 (1607)
Invested
$487.32
Value
$815.98
PnL
+$328.65
Record
49%
480-493 (973)
Both legs:
gabigolInvested
$342.12
Value
$365.43
PnL
+$23.31
Record
48%
251-273 (524)
Invested
$384.33
Value
$339.99
PnL
+$19.88
Record
58%
4971-3632 (8603)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$316.74
Value
$309.33
PnL
-$7.41
Record
52%
2159-2014 (4173)
Invested
$300.24
Value
$300.13
PnL
-$0.1
Record
55%
4374-3580 (7954)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$285.26
Value
$296
PnL
+$10.74
Record
52%
2593-2411 (5004)
Invested
$678.6
Value
$213.74
PnL
+$129.6
Record
51%
4610-4467 (9077)
Invested
$801
Value
$196.81
PnL
+$29.1
Record
51%
1368-1337 (2705)
Invested
$159.17
Value
$176.67
PnL
+$17.5
Record
49%
865-890 (1755)
Invested
$386.8
Value
—
PnL
-$386.8
Record
65%
1911-1050 (2961)
Invested
$169.57
Value
$126.66
PnL
-$28.31
Record
56%
249-199 (448)
Invested
$809.03
Value
$119.94
PnL
+$5.16
Record
50%
1358-1358 (2716)
Invested
$124.47
Value
$116.42
PnL
+$23.52
Record
59%
3605-2478 (6083)
Invested
$77.85
Value
$81.55
PnL
+$3.7
Record
42%
280-382 (662)
Invested
$70.3
Value
$65
PnL
-$5.3
Record
50%
4364-4429 (8793)
Invested
$61.27
Value
$62.26
PnL
+$1.11
Record
67%
3307-1655 (4962)
Invested
$36.48
Value
$48.16
PnL
+$11.68
Record
57%
128-98 (226)
Invested
$37.39
Value
$51.14
PnL
+$13.76
Record
37%
611-1024 (1635)
Invested
$41.53
Value
—
PnL
-$41.53
Record
52%
1734-1576 (3310)
Invested
$33.55
Value
$70
PnL
+$36.45
Record
47%
2103-2356 (4459)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $1.8K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $1.6K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.1K
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
EZTRADENL2
Up — $358.13
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
gabigol
Up — $365.43
Hcrystallash
Up — $339.99
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $309.33
stepahead
Up — $300.13