Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$549.67

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 34 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares6,988

Combined PnL+$894.7

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,260

Combined PnL-$345.03

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 67.5¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	+$161.28	50% 3000-2949 (5949)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 58.9¢	$732	$1.2K	+$510.4	50% 2139-2136 (4275)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 82.5¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$211.02	50% 472-477 (949)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$636.06	$642.69	+$6.62	98% 3454-73 (3527)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$514.43	$490	-$2.6	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$244.62	$490	+$247.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$249.93	—	-$249.8
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 43.9¢	$172.81	$393.86	+$221.04	46% 948-1109 (2057)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 86.8¢	$415	$299.31	-$57.23	52% 2111-1963 (4074)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 70.1¢	$183.68	$198.92	+$15.24	49% 855-884 (1739)
ST stepahead	Downavg 50.4¢	$180.51	$184.32	+$3.81	55% 4342-3564 (7906)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 77.5¢	$123.75	$159.75	+$36	42% 274-379 (653)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 71.9¢	$107.16	$135.2	+$32.49	50% 4298-4377 (8675)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 28.6¢	$203.34	—	-$203.34	51% 4575-4432 (9007)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 67.9¢	$101.95	$150.07	+$48.12	57% 228-175 (403)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 92.5¢	$130.97	$120	-$10.97	51% 800-760 (1560)
LI Little-big	Downavg 48.3¢	$97.62	$202	+$104.38	51% 926-882 (1808)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 21.6¢	$233.96	—	-$6.48	49% 1308-1342 (2650)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Upavg 35.5¢	$145.14	—	-$121.74	58% 4940-3609 (8549)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 83.4¢	$64.87	$52.96	-$8.35	60% 3539-2389 (5928)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 16.1¢	$266.58	—	+$11.72	50% 1325-1312 (2637)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 81.2¢	$43.02	$52.97	+$9.95	52% 2516-2359 (4875)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 85.4¢	$24.99	$25	+$0.01	49% 2260-2317 (4577)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 77.3¢	$19.12	$24.74	+$5.62	67% 3226-1609 (4835)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 72.4¢	$18.1	$25	+$6.9	65% 1905-1041 (2946)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 56.8¢	$17.99	—	-$17.99	38% 598-977 (1575)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$17.29	$22.4	+$5.11	50% 747-748 (1495)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,006.83

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$161.28

Record

50%

3000-2949 (5949)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$732

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$510.4

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$1,416.93

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$211.02

Record

50%

472-477 (949)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$636.06

Value

$642.69

PnL

+$6.62

Record

98%

3454-73 (3527)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$514.43

Value

$490

PnL

-$2.6

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

Both legs:

Down$244.6249.9¢+$247.2

Up$249.9349.5¢-$249.8

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$172.81

Value

$393.86

PnL

+$221.04

Record

46%

948-1109 (2057)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$415

Value

$299.31

PnL

-$57.23

Record

52%

2111-1963 (4074)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$183.68

Value

$198.92

PnL

+$15.24

Record

49%

855-884 (1739)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$180.51

Value

$184.32

PnL

+$3.81

Record

55%

4342-3564 (7906)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$123.75

Value

$159.75

PnL

+$36

Record

42%

274-379 (653)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$107.16

Value

$135.2

PnL

+$32.49

Record

50%

4298-4377 (8675)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$203.34

Value

—

PnL

-$203.34

Record

51%

4575-4432 (9007)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$101.95

Value

$150.07

PnL

+$48.12

Record

57%

228-175 (403)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$130.97

Value

$120

PnL

-$10.97

Record

51%

800-760 (1560)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$97.62

Value

$202

PnL

+$104.38

Record

51%

926-882 (1808)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$233.96

Value

—

PnL

-$6.48

Record

49%

1308-1342 (2650)

HcrystallashCTR

Invested

$145.14

Value

—

PnL

-$121.74

Record

58%

4940-3609 (8549)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$64.87

Value

$52.96

PnL

-$8.35

Record

60%

3539-2389 (5928)

almachCTR

Invested

$266.58

Value

—

PnL

+$11.72

Record

50%

1325-1312 (2637)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$43.02

Value

$52.97

PnL

+$9.95

Record

52%

2516-2359 (4875)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$24.99

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

2260-2317 (4577)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$19.12

Value

$24.74

PnL

+$5.62

Record

67%

3226-1609 (4835)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$18.1

Value

$25

PnL

+$6.9

Record

65%

1905-1041 (2946)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$17.99

Value

—

PnL

-$17.99

Record

38%

598-977 (1575)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$17.29

Value

$22.4

PnL

+$5.11

Record

50%

747-748 (1495)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 34 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe608e04b...662087

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794666600

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $1.8K

+$161.28

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.2K

+$510.4

aswfadq1555

Down — $1.2K

-$211.02

hoodquant

Down — $642.69

+$6.62

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$2.6

CrouchPredictions

Down — $393.86

+$221.04

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $299.31

-$57.23

peepeepoopoo24

Down — $198.92

+$15.24

stepahead

Down — $184.32

+$3.81

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down — $159.75

+$36

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