Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$340.97

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 34 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares7,280

Combined PnL+$552.11

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,595

Combined PnL-$893.08

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 72.8¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	+$480.9	50% 3000-2949 (5949)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 93.8¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$114.32	52% 2111-1963 (4074)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 90.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$110.31	42% 1545-2147 (3692)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 91.5¢	$1.1K	$897	-$185.9	50% 472-477 (949)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.5¢	$820.72	$897	+$76.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 16¢	$262.18	—	-$262.18
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$554.4	$560.01	+$5.61	98% 3454-73 (3527)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 90¢	$528.16	$561.54	+$33.38	46% 948-1109 (2057)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.7¢	$505.17	—	-$490.47	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 76¢	$462.63	$461.78	+$4.83	58% 4940-3609 (8549)
MO mo-money	Downavg 98.8¢	$635.74	$409.48	-$5.35	49% 1308-1342 (2650)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 93.3¢	$362.01	$356.1	-$5.92	51% 800-760 (1560)
ST stepahead	Downavg 70.6¢	$200.63	$187.18	-$13.46	55% 4342-3564 (7906)
AA aaa221ARB<$100	Downavg 83.5¢	$136.03	$113.23	-$22.05	60% 3539-2389 (5928)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.5¢	$94.53	$113.23	+$18.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.2¢	$38.19	—	-$40.74
ohioism	Downavg 90.9¢	$129.81	$140.8	+$10.99	47% 1969-2182 (4151)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 85.8¢	$117.7	$117.83	+$0.13	52% 2516-2359 (4875)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 13.5¢	$92.3	—	-$92.3	50% 1325-1312 (2637)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 84.5¢	$107.92	$127.67	+$19.75	57% 228-175 (403)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 83.8¢	$111.14	$99.99	-$11.15	49% 855-884 (1739)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 83.5¢	$107.2	$95	+$10.55	47% 1989-2244 (4233)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 8.3¢	$55.6	—	-$55.6	51% 4575-4432 (9007)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 87.7¢	$66.88	$68.14	+$1.54	67% 3226-1609 (4835)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 91¢	$57.38	$60	+$2.62	47% 2034-2298 (4332)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 16¢	$144.83	$30.52	-$114.31	50% 2139-2136 (4275)
└ Down leg	Downavg 95¢	$28.99	$30.52	+$1.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 16¢	$115.84	—	-$115.84
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Downavg 85.3¢	$44	$51.55	+$7.55	42% 274-379 (653)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 82.9¢	$54.9	$41	+$9.92	50% 4298-4377 (8675)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 52.8¢	$37.5	—	-$37.5	48% 169-183 (352)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,435.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$480.9

Record

50%

3000-2949 (5949)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,418.45

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$114.32

Record

52%

2111-1963 (4074)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$1,102.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$110.31

Record

42%

1545-2147 (3692)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,082.9

Value

$897

PnL

-$185.9

Record

50%

472-477 (949)

Both legs:

Down$820.7291.5¢+$76.28

Up$262.1816¢-$262.18

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$554.4

Value

$560.01

PnL

+$5.61

Record

98%

3454-73 (3527)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$528.16

Value

$561.54

PnL

+$33.38

Record

46%

948-1109 (2057)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$505.17

Value

—

PnL

-$490.47

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$462.63

Value

$461.78

PnL

+$4.83

Record

58%

4940-3609 (8549)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$635.74

Value

$409.48

PnL

-$5.35

Record

49%

1308-1342 (2650)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$362.01

Value

$356.1

PnL

-$5.92

Record

51%

800-760 (1560)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$200.63

Value

$187.18

PnL

-$13.46

Record

55%

4342-3564 (7906)

aaa221ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$136.03

Value

$113.23

PnL

-$22.05

Record

60%

3539-2389 (5928)

Both legs:

Down$94.5383.5¢+$18.7

Up$38.1916.2¢-$40.74

ohioism

Down

Invested

$129.81

Value

$140.8

PnL

+$10.99

Record

47%

1969-2182 (4151)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$117.7

Value

$117.83

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

2516-2359 (4875)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$92.3

Value

—

PnL

-$92.3

Record

50%

1325-1312 (2637)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$107.92

Value

$127.67

PnL

+$19.75

Record

57%

228-175 (403)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$111.14

Value

$99.99

PnL

-$11.15

Record

49%

855-884 (1739)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$107.2

Value

$95

PnL

+$10.55

Record

47%

1989-2244 (4233)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$55.6

Value

—

PnL

-$55.6

Record

51%

4575-4432 (9007)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$66.88

Value

$68.14

PnL

+$1.54

Record

67%

3226-1609 (4835)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$57.38

Value

$60

PnL

+$2.62

Record

47%

2034-2298 (4332)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$144.83

Value

$30.52

PnL

-$114.31

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

Both legs:

Down$28.9995¢+$1.53

Up$115.8416¢-$115.84

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Down

Invested

$44

Value

$51.55

PnL

+$7.55

Record

42%

274-379 (653)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$54.9

Value

$41

PnL

+$9.92

Record

50%

4298-4377 (8675)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$37.5

Value

—

PnL

-$37.5

Record

48%

169-183 (352)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 34 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7a400752...ce3784

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794664800

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $1.3K

+$480.9

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $1.3K

-$114.32

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $1.2K

+$110.31

aswfadq1555

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$185.9

hoodquant

Down — $560.01

+$5.61

CrouchPredictions

Down — $561.54

+$33.38

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$490.47

Hcrystallash

Down — $461.78

+$4.83

mo-money

Down — $409.48

-$5.35

EZTRADENL2

Down — $356.1

-$5.92

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