Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

18 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Up98¢Down2¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$546.87

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 97.5¢

+38% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up98%

Down3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,670

Combined PnL-$70.48

Down12 traders

Total Value$691.54

Total Shares3,127

Combined PnL-$476.4

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 83.3¢	$761.77	$637.99	-$123.39	46% 944-1097 (2041)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$508.24	$499.93	+$3.47	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$250.75	$279.95	+$29.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$245.99	$219.98	-$25.62
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 65.1¢	$376.81	$343.89	-$32.92	58% 4936-3607 (8543)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 65.3¢	$368.16	$322.99	+$1.6	52% 2098-1948 (4046)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 41.7¢	$329.93	$281.06	-$48.88	50% 1311-1307 (2618)
ST stepahead	Upavg 57.7¢	$286.56	$277.23	-$9.33	55% 4334-3556 (7890)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 41.1¢	$282.4	$244.15	-$38.24	49% 1297-1335 (2632)
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 60.3¢	$188.97	$235.12	+$46.15	50% 469-472 (941)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 32¢	$287.05	$195.64	-$91.41	51% 4567-4423 (8990)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85¢	$125.12	$127.33	+$2.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 32¢	$161.93	$68.31	-$93.62
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 65.1¢	$147.31	$161.78	+$14.47	49% 4271-4363 (8634)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 76.4¢	$157.68	$150.4	-$7.28	49% 853-882 (1735)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 97.3¢	$150.48	$150.11	-$0.38	51% 796-751 (1547)
AL Alpharo28ARB<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$169.66	$125.32	-$15.5	57% 220-167 (387)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$74.29	$86	+$14.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$69.23	$39.33	-$30.2
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 71.1¢	$90.25	$123.74	+$33.49	42% 271-379 (650)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 61.2¢	$61.15	$68.78	+$7.62	47% 1973-2229 (4202)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 88.2¢	$50.95	$41.76	-$8.17	67% 3205-1601 (4806)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$42.13	$38.86	-$3.27	47% 2017-2278 (4295)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$20.77	$31	+$10.23	52% 4903-4599 (9502)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 57¢	$60.94	$30.85	+$3.54	63% 3794-2264 (6058)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$25.06	$26.66	+$1.61	52% 1712-1564 (3276)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 55¢	$25.3	$25.07	-$0.23	50% 1805-1780 (3585)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 37.5¢	$37.55	$24.5	-$13.05	47% 1952-2164 (4116)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 41.6¢	$190.84	$20.65	-$170.19	50% 2116-2116 (4232)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$18.6	$20.1	+$1.5	44% 1940-2509 (4449)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 53¢	$14.9	$15.65	+$0.75	50% 740-741 (1481)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$761.77

Value

$637.99

PnL

-$123.39

Record

46%

944-1097 (2041)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$508.24

Value

$499.93

PnL

+$3.47

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

Both legs:

Down$250.7549.7¢+$29.09

Up$245.9949.8¢-$25.62

Hcrystallash

Invested

$376.81

Value

$343.89

PnL

-$32.92

Record

58%

4936-3607 (8543)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$368.16

Value

$322.99

PnL

+$1.6

Record

52%

2098-1948 (4046)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$329.93

Value

$281.06

PnL

-$48.88

Record

50%

1311-1307 (2618)

stepahead

Invested

$286.56

Value

$277.23

PnL

-$9.33

Record

55%

4334-3556 (7890)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$282.4

Value

$244.15

PnL

-$38.24

Record

49%

1297-1335 (2632)

aswfadq1555

Invested

$188.97

Value

$235.12

PnL

+$46.15

Record

50%

469-472 (941)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$287.05

Value

$195.64

PnL

-$91.41

Record

51%

4567-4423 (8990)

Both legs:

Up$125.1285¢+$2.21

Down$161.9332¢-$93.62

asdcaxz

Invested

$147.31

Value

$161.78

PnL

+$14.47

Record

49%

4271-4363 (8634)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$157.68

Value

$150.4

PnL

-$7.28

Record

49%

853-882 (1735)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$150.48

Value

$150.11

PnL

-$0.38

Record

51%

796-751 (1547)

Alpharo28ARB<$100

Invested

$169.66

Value

$125.32

PnL

-$15.5

Record

57%

220-167 (387)

Both legs:

Up$74.2963.5¢+$14.71

Down$69.2346.7¢-$30.2

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$90.25

Value

$123.74

PnL

+$33.49

Record

42%

271-379 (650)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$61.15

Value

$68.78

PnL

+$7.62

Record

47%

1973-2229 (4202)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$50.95

Value

$41.76

PnL

-$8.17

Record

67%

3205-1601 (4806)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$42.13

Value

$38.86

PnL

-$3.27

Record

47%

2017-2278 (4295)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$20.77

Value

$31

PnL

+$10.23

Record

52%

4903-4599 (9502)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$60.94

Value

$30.85

PnL

+$3.54

Record

63%

3794-2264 (6058)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.06

Value

$26.66

PnL

+$1.61

Record

52%

1712-1564 (3276)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$25.3

Value

$25.07

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

1805-1780 (3585)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$37.55

Value

$24.5

PnL

-$13.05

Record

47%

1952-2164 (4116)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$190.84

Value

$20.65

PnL

-$170.19

Record

50%

2116-2116 (4232)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.6

Value

$20.1

PnL

+$1.5

Record

44%

1940-2509 (4449)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$14.9

Value

$15.65

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

740-741 (1481)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.